Argu99 [Shining Sep 作文组] 8.22

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT99 - The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.

"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
WORDS: 460          TIME: 1:05:18          DATE: 2006-8-22

In this argument, the arguer asserts that people should encourage farmers in Paucia to cultivate a new variety of rice. The arguer gives the example of the neighboring country Abudia to prove his argument. In addition, to support the conclusion, the arguer points out that this rice would improve country's balance of trade. However, all these reasons are untenable.

First of all, the arguer cites that farmers of Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year, but how much rice the farmers of Abundia produced is not indicated in this argument. There is no statistics to show the detailed amount of the rice. Maybe the rice yield of Abundia was too low in the past years. After increasing 80 percent, the rice production comes back to the normal level. Moreover, there is no any evidence to prove that the new rice seed is the only reason of increasing rice yield of Abundia. A good climate, a new kind of technology, or a new mechine, all can cause the increasing of rice yield.

Second, using the example of Abundia is not improper to support the argument. Even if the increasing rice yields is totoally attribute to the new seed, the arguer could not assure that using the seed can improve the rice yield in Paucia. Whether there is any similarity between Abundia and Paucia is not mentioned in this argument. The climate, cultivating method, soil are all very important to the rice yield. Any difference of them would make the different rice yield. Therefore, it is not surely possible that the rice seed is suitable to be cultivated in Paucia.

Finally, it is doubtful that cultivating this new variety of rice can increase the income of farmers. A high yield of this new rice is not equal with a good taste. Otherwise, a good taste do not means a good sale. Hence, without a general market research the arguer's assumption is irresponsible. Furthermore, there is no inherent consequence between cultivating new rice and exporting it. It is a cursory predicate that such high yields of rice would improve Paucia's balance of trade by enabling them to begin exporting it. No evidence can demonstrate the rice can be exported easily. If no country needs this kind of rice, and they need the traditional crops of Paucia, cultivating this new rice would impair Paucia's balance of trade, and damage the Paucia's economy.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks of credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument, the arguer would have to give detail statistics of example of Abundia. To better evaluate the argument, we would need a survey of this new rice seed.