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argument 38
The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
前提:
鱼能够防止感冒,但这不意味着鱼油也能,更不能保证鱼油中的某种成份比如Ichthaid能有这样的效果
论据:
不一定是鱼防止了感冒:
1 可能那儿更温暖,气温变化小,这也可能使得人少感冒;水源,环境等等
2一年去医院接受两次感冒治疗并不意味着一年只得两次感冒,感冒的人不一定都会去医院
结论
论者认为感冒是旷最经常的理由,所以是降低感冒也就是降低旷工旷课的好办法
1 有多少旷的人是因为感冒
2 借口;或者旷有其他原因
As mentioned in the memo, since colds can be prevented by eating fish as deduced by the author and is the main reason given for absence from work, the author recommend Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to stop absenteeism. However, close scrutiny of the evidence author submitted reveals that it lends to little credible support for what the memo asserts.
First of all, before conclusion could be deduced out, we should assure Ichthaid an effective ingredient in fish for preventing colds. Perhaps, eating fish could help to improve our health and keep ourselves from colds. But is it really the fish oil that takes effect? We find no evidence shown by the author concerning the effect of fish oil. Without further proof to clarify the question, let alone to promise that Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, would be a good choice for us to prevent colds.
Secondly, the memo claims that fish would do help to prevent colds. To support this assertion, the author mentions a study in East Meria. But the report only concerns the case there in East Meria. It cannot rule out the possibility that it is warmer in East Meria or the water and air in East Meria can better prevent epidemic. Moreover, even people rarely visit doctors for treatment of colds; the fact does not mean that few people catch colds in East Meria per year, since the people catching cold could choose to have the pill preserved in drawer instead of visiting a doctor if the state is not so serious.
Thirdly, since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, as concerned in the memo, the author regards some precautions for colds as a good way to stop absenteeism. But is it really the colds that mainly give rise to absenteeism? Without further figures to tell us how many students absent from school due to catching cold, it may be a little bit arbitrary to draw a conclusion like that. If colds are often used as excuse by workers or students, the conclusion here would be not as convincing as it stands.
In short, the conclusion drawn by the author is not so convincing. To strengthen the viewpoint shown in the memo, the author should prove the Ichthaid an effective gradient in fish and clarify the relationship between eating fish and preventing colds. To better prove that absenteeism is mainly caused by colds, a figure is necessary to show us how many students absent from school due to colds. |
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