ARGUMENT153--快考试了，3.20的，请拍之，必回拍

billfigoUID: 2264887

TOPIC: ARGUMENT153 - The following is from an editorial in the Midvale Observer, a local newspaper.
"Ever since the 1950's, when television sets began to appear in the average home, the rate of crimes committed by teenagers
in the country of Alta has steadily increased. This increase in teenage crime parallels the increase in violence shown on
television. According to several national studies, even very young children who watch a great number of television shows
featuring violent scenes display more violent behavior within their home environment than do children who do not watch
violent shows. Furthermore, in a survey conducted by the Observer, over 90 percent of the respondents were parents who
indicated that prime-time television-programs that are shown between 7 p.m. and 9 p.m.-should show less violence. Therefore,
in order to lower the rate of teenage crime in Alta, television viewers should demand that television programmers reduce the
amount of violence shown during prime time."
WORDS: 203          TIME: 上午 12:09:29          DATE: 2007-3-5


In this argument , the arguer attempts to convince us that in order to lower the rate of crime in the country of Alta, we should reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time. To justify this claim, the arguer provides the evidence that the increase in teenage crime parallels the increase on television. In addition, the arguer cites the results of several
national studies and a survey conducted by the Observe. However, the argument suffers from several critical fallacies, which might seriously undermine the argument.

First of all, the arguer fails to establish a causal relationship between the increase in teenage crime and the increase in violence shown on television. Actually, as shown in the argument , it is just a correlation ship between them , for they happens at the same time  without any more details. The arguer ignores other relevant factors that could influence the rate of crime in the country of Alta, such as economic growth , the unemployment rate , the social welfare system and the ethic problem, even drug problems there or not. So,it is pretty hard to find any such information in the analysis to solidify the argument.

On the other hand, the evidence provided in this argument is not sufficient to validate the conclusion that programers should reduce the amount of violence shown during prime time. Firstly, the results of several national studies that the arguer mentioned is definitely unreliable, for it is not representative with national average data when we focus on the problem in  the country of Alta not the same issue of the nation. Secondly, it is tosome extent doubtful for the editorial of Midvale Observer using the survey of its own , which is not persuasive enough with any more details. Even the survey is totally true and unbiased, it just is a expression of parents , who do not want their children to see the violence shown during the prime time.Nevertheless, it is insufficient to claim that less violence shown during prime time would lower the teenage crime, since the children still could watch the violence show on television at the other time or affected by others.

To sum up, the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence provided in the analysis does not substantially support what the arguer maintains. To strengthen the argument , the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the causal relationship between the increase in teenage crime and the increase in violence shown no television. Moreover, in order to better evaluate the argument , we should need more information regarding the survey and the national studies to make sure whether they are sound proofs or not.  

billfigoUID: 2264887

用了一些比较土的魔板句子，也是为了省时间，感觉不够时间，没办法，不知道会不会被判雷同