Argument45 【0710G-HIT坚持交作业小组】第十二次作业

doris_gxcUID：2370933

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 394          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-12 17:06:17

The explanation given by the author for the decline of the arctic deer according to a report is based on mass of uncertain assumption. Moreover the reasoning is flawed for its careless deduction and ignorance on other possibilities.

To begin with the reports from local hunters may not be reliable. Their assertion on the declining of the population of the deer could just illustrate the deer they could find near their residential places are less than before. It is possible the population of deer is seasonally changed or those deer have migrated to other places. If so, what the hunters saw about the population can not reflect the whole group of arctic deer. Especially when the article has said about the global warming that may melt the ice over the sea and separate the island, the deer might not be able to cross the sea to run into the hunters' horizon.

Moreover, even if the number of the deer is decreased, it may not necessarily due to the global warming, as it assumed by this journal. Excessive hunting on the deer may be more likely to be the reason for the declining population. Therefore, before the author could rule out this factor, it can not be sure that the globe warming exerts much affection on this affair merely because they happened at the same time. Just as the author said, it is coincidence.

Furthermore, even if the global warming has any effect on the deer, it may not lead to the declining rather than the increasing. Since no evidence proves whether the former climate is suitable for the deer, it is entirely possible the warmer weather is more suitable. Maybe at before the weather is too cold for the plants on which the deer feed to grow, which forced them to migrate to other places to find food. But when the temperature climb, the plants could grow better near their habitant. Even though the melt ice may prevent their migration they do not lack of food. As the result, the population may increase due to the global warming.

In the end, for strengthening the conclusion the author should first make sure the deer is declining. And clarify other factors like hunting do no influence the population of deer obviously. What is more, the most suitable weather for deer to live should also be illustrated.

[ 本帖最后由 doris_gxc 于 2007-8-12 19:13 编辑 ]

ambitionxxUID：2314730

The explanation given by the author for the decline of the arctic deer according to a report is based on mass of uncertain assumption. Moreover the reasoning is flawed for its careless deduction and ignorance on other possibilities.

To begin with, the reports from local hunters may not be reliable. Their assertion on the declining of the population of the deer could just illustrate the deer they could find near their residential places are less than before.( 这段总体情况给下文做了不少铺垫) It is possible the population of deer is seasonally changed or those deer have migrated to other places. If so, what the hunters saw about the population can not reflect the whole group of arctic deer. Especially when the article has said about the global warming that may melt the ice over the sea and separate the island, the deer might not be able to cross the sea to run into the hunters' horizon.

Moreover, even if the number of the deer is decreased, it may not necessarily due to the global warming, as it assumed by this journal. Excessive hunting on the deer may be more likely to be the reason for the declining population. Therefore, before the author could rule out this factor, it can not be sure that the globe warming exerts much affection on this affair merely because they happened at the same time. Just as the author said, it is coincidence.（分析太浅了，其实你就说了一个可能性，还可找其他原因充实一下）

Furthermore, even if the global warming has any effect on the deer, it may not lead to the declining rather than the increasing. Since no evidence proves whether the former climate is suitable for the deer, it is entirely possible the warmer weather is more suitable. Maybe at before the weather is too cold for the plants on which the deer feed to grow, which forced them to migrate to other places to find food. But when the temperature climb, the plants could grow better near their habitant. Even though the melt ice may prevent their migration they do not lack of food. As the result, the population may increase due to the global warming.

In the end, for strengthening the conclusion the author should first make sure the deer is declining. And clarify other factors like hunting do no influence the population of deer obviously. What is more, the most suitable weather for deer to live should also be illustrated

[ 本帖最后由 ambitionxx 于 2007-8-13 21:13 编辑 ]

doris_gxcUID：2370933

食物链被破坏

彗星撞地球？（偷笑～）

呵呵，谢谢！