argument65 求拍~

Francis07UID：2185659

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."
WORDS: 389          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2007-8-13 上午 10:52:48

The president of this cheese company have made a hasty decision to stop stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic ones, while neglecting several possibile possible factors that could easily tureover turnover this dicision decision.

First of all, last year's sales circumstance could not be a strong supporting for the long term decision.  The article only mentioned that during the last year, the five best-selling cheeses are all from the domestic productors manufacturers and all of them are from Wisconsin.  However, it did not mention what were the sales circumstances of other times.  Maybe the year before last, or the last 2 years before the last have all saled sold more imported cheeses than the domestic ones.  Also, the article only mentioned that these domestic cheeses are all from Wisconsin.  Then what about other states?  Maybe other sixth or the seventh best selling cheeses are still the imported ones.  And maybe last years' cheeses from Wisconsin have just improved their techniques in producing and made a lot of advisements through television, thus, gaining more popularity than any other cheeses.  Therefore, without cogent evident to show domestic cheeses really sales better than the imported ones, the president is too hasty to discontinue importing cheeses.

Moreover, simply a publication from a magazine can not tell much about the population of cheeses among customers.  Magazines tend to make conclusions through questioners or surveys.  And here the article did not mention anything about the survey.  Lacking such statistics to convince us that the popularity of domestic cheese has really increased make us no choice but to question the reliability of the conclusion of the publication.  It might be a fact that the magazine is only making a prediction with its own observation objective opinion.  And also an increasing preference for domestic cheeses does not necessary indicate a decline of interest in import cheese.  Therefore, for the sake of this reason, making such decision is too hasty.

Even when it is the truth that the domestic cheeses are gaining more profit than the imported ones, one could not conclude that the company could reduce its invention.  What about the cost of these domestic cheeses are much higher that the import one because of their high techniques?

To sum up, without ruling out the above possibilities the presidents will lose his chance to make a profit.  

Francis07UID：2185659

The reporter claimed that the best way to improve profits in all of their stores is to discontinue stocking many of their varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses.  To substantiate this claim the reporter cited that the five best-selling cheeses at their newest store were all domestic cheddar chesses from Wisconsin.  Moreover, a recent survey was provided by a magazine indicating an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers.  While this argument has some merits, it suffers from several critical problems.

First of all, the evidence that the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin does not necessarily mean that domestic cheeses sell better than imported ones throughout the whole country.  The author did not mention the sales status of other retail stores in other states.  If the total sales status of the whole country shows that domestic cheeses really sales better than the imported ones, then we could probably conclude that domestic ones were sold well last year.  Given that these domestic cheeses were really sold well throughout the country, the article did not mention whether the customers are in favor of the type of the cheese or is it because these cheeses are domestic ones.  Customers are more likely to care more about the types of the cheeses instead of the producing places.  Moreover, the one year phenomenon is also a not representative one, because the time span is too short.  It is entirely possible that last year is just a abnormal statistic throughout the a long sale experience of this cheese company.  And therefore the evidence in this newest store is unconvincing.

In addition, the magazine’s survey provided in the argument is also problematic.  The survey did not mention any thing about its sponsors and the candidates of this survey.  It is entirely possible that the survey is sponsored by a domestic cheese company who really wanted to improve its sales status, therefore, the survey might not be convincing because its sponsor might not tell the truth about the statistics after the survey.  On the other hand, without giving a clear number of the anticipators of the survey, the result of the survey might be an unconvincing one with only a little amount of people, which is not representative.  Given the statistics and the result of the survey are true that people are growing their concern and are becoming more in favor of the domestic cheeses, it does not indicate that they would by them in the near future.  Customers are more likely to choose what their friends introduced to them and as is discussed above are willing to choose according to the types instead of its original places.  

Even if the market of domestic cheeses would increase, it does not necessarily indicate that imported cheese will not make any profits in the future.  The author have not considered that although people are growing their interests in domestic cheeses, some old customers would were already accustomed to buy imported cheeses would probably still continues to buy them.  And there still remains such a great market which was established through the past years.  A sudden stop in stocking imported cheese would probably make a big loss for the whole company.

To sum up, the argument is not cogent enough to convince me, let alone the president.  To increase the credibility of the argument, the author should cite more evidence to show that the sale status of the domestic cheeses is really increasing throughout the country.  And people are really increasing their interests in domestic cheeses and will certainly buy them in the future.  Otherwise, the company will probably make a loss.