argument220 Spring-第六次作业

林周孟UID: 2341714

    Argument 220  The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers.
    "A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. This result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media."

     Word:495  time: 90 mins date:2007-11-30

    In this article,the author suggest people who seeking carrers as writers should acquire training and experience in television writing rather than in book writing.In order to support this suggestion,the author cites a recent study showing that during a typical day’s conversation people make an average of 23 references to watching television but only 1 reference to reading fiction.From these statistics the author reasons that television industry are likely more profitable than the publishing and bookselling industries.Through careful scrutiny,the argument contains several critical flaws,which render it unpersuasive.

    In the first place,the article lacks sufficient information about how the study was conducted.Unless the number of participants has a statistic significance ,and unless the participants can be representative of the overall people,any conclusion drawn from the study would be unreliable.It is quite possible that only the few people who are addict to watching television take part in the study,or the majority of people who prefer reading books are eliminated out of the study.If this is the case, than the suggestion relied on the study can be unconvincing for the sake that the study lacks samples of statistic significance and representativeness.

    In the second place, the suggestion depends on an assumption that the frequence with which a person refers in conversation to television,or the fiction books,is a good indication of how much television a person watches ,or how many fiction books a person reads.However,this is not necessarily the case.As we know, reading a book is a individual activity and the preference of a book varies widely from person to person ,therefore it is less likely for two persons to read the same book While in certain district,the television has limited programs at the same time ,thus the possibility that two persons watch the same television program is relativlely high.In daily life,people tend to communicate with each other using the materials that both of them have read or watched,rather than using something each of them might feel unfamiliar with.This process of reasoning, If true, will also serve to weaken the author’s suggestion.

    Finally, the result of the study can not lend credible support to the author’s assessment that television industry are likely more profitable than the publishing and bookselling industries..To begin with ,the study’result exclude any date about nonfiction books-a category that might constitute book publishers’ main profit source.Secondly,not only students but also adults,and even old people, usually have a great amount of books of their own.However,in most circumstance,there is only one television set in one family.In other words ,several people own only one television set.Thus,it is quite possible that the publishing and bookselling industries are more profitable than television industry,which means that the author’s suggestion in unjustifiable.

    To sum up ,the suggestion is unconvincing as it stands.To strengthen it, the author should provide a reliable result of study involved in representative samples and samples of statistic significance.To better assess it ,the author should substantiate that television industry are more profitable than the publishing and bookselling industries with detailed analysis.

mcdobyUID: 2403019

In this article,the author suggest people who seeking carrers as writers should acquire training and experience in television writing rather than in book writing.In order to support this suggestion,the author cites a recent study showing that during a typical day’s conversation people make an average of 23 references to watching television but only 1 reference to reading fiction.From these statistics the author reasons that television industry are likely more profitable than the publishing and bookselling industries.Through careful scrutiny,the argument contains several critical flaws,which render it unpersuasive.

    In the first place,the article lacks sufficient information about how the study was conducted.Unless the number of participants has a statistic significance ,and unless the participants can be representative of the overall people,any conclusion drawn from the study would be unreliable.It is quite possible that only the few people who are addict to watching television take part in the study,or the majority of people who prefer reading books are eliminated out of the study.If this is the case, than （then）the suggestion relied on the study can be unconvincing for the sake that the study lacks samples of statistic significance and representativeness.

    In the second place, the suggestion depends on an assumption that the frequence with which a person refers in conversation to television,or the fiction books,is a good indication of how much television a person watches ,or how many fiction books a person reads.However,this is not necessarily the case.As we know, reading a book is a individual activity and the preference of a book varies widely from person to person ,therefore it is less likely for two persons to read the same book While in certain district,the television has limited programs at the same time ,thus the possibility that two persons watch the same television program is relativlely high.In daily life,people tend to communicate with each other using the materials that both of them have read or watched,rather than using something each of them might feel unfamiliar with.This process of reasoning, If true, will also serve to weaken the author’s suggestion.

    Finally, the result of the study can not lend credible support to the author’s assessment that television industry are likely more profitable than the publishing and bookselling industries..To begin with ,the study’result exclude any date about nonfiction books-a category that might constitute book publishers’ main profit source.Secondly,not only students but also adults,and even old people, usually have a great amount of books of their own.However,in most circumstance,there is only one television set in one family.In other words ,several people own only one television set.Thus,it is quite possible that the publishing and bookselling industries are more profitable than television industry,which means that the author’s suggestion in unjustifiable.

    To sum up ,the suggestion is unconvincing as it stands.To strengthen it, the author should provide a reliable result of study involved in representative samples and samples of statistic significance.To better assess it ,the author should substantiate that television industry are more profitable than the publishing and bookselling industries with detailed analysis.


我觉得文章语言挺流畅的，攻击的点也足够了。只是有一点建议：标点符号后要空一格再写字。建议写好后放在word里面查一下，可以检查出不少语法和拼写错误。
所以有些小的拼写错误和个别语法问题（都是动词单数问题），我就没有一个个改。