argument5[AWER小组]交第四次作业喽

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Argument5. The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."

鉴于我国在未来20年中患某种形式关节炎的人数预计将从4千万上升至6千万，生产治疗关节炎药物的制药公司将获得巨大利润。很多分析家相信，生产最畅销关节炎药物Xenon的Becton Pharmaceuticals将会在十年后成为利润最高的制药公司。但Xenon的专利在三年内就要到期了，到时其他公司将能够生产该药的廉价版。因此，十年后利润最高的公司更有可能是Perkins Pharmaceuticals，该公司生产一种叫做Xylan的新药，临床调查表明在患最严重关节炎的患者中10个有7个倾向于Xylan而不是Xenon。

提纲：
1  关节炎的人数预计将从4千万上升至6千万是否可信？生产治疗关节炎药物的制药公司将获得巨大利润也是没有根据的，有可能很多公司都看到了这个商机使得这一行业竞争特别激烈以至于无利可图。
2　Becton Pharmaceuticals将赚不到钱没根据。Xenon的专利在三年内就要到期了，并不代表它将不推出新的产品，另外即使其他制药厂能够生产出Xenon来，但它们的质量上可能没有Becton Pharmaceuticals的有保障，顾客也对Becton Pharmaceuticals有很高的忠诚度。
3　Perkins Pharmaceuticals也不一定会赚钱，因为他的产品只是在临床上在极端重病人中受欢迎，实际产品不一定会受欢迎，另外对于普通症状其效果也不确定。
  
The author assert that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company in ten years on the basis the company' new product is more effective in clinical studies than Xenon, product of its biggest rival. To support the assertion, the author cites the facts that the population of arthritis patients will increase significantly and its opponent' product will face great competition with the same kind of products produced by other companies due to the product' patent will expires in three years. Close scrutiny of those facts, however, reveals none of them lend credible support to the assertion.
  
  For the first place, the author assume that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, but he or she does not provide any evidence for that, or we are not informed where does the information come from and if it is reliable. Lack the evidence it is equally possible that the population of arthritis patients may decrease due to people know more about arthritis and have effective methods to prevent it. If the information is fundamentally wrong, then it will be harder for arthritis producers to make money. Even if the information is provided by authority and reliable, the author does not provide evidence for arthritis producers will make great money because it may possible that many pharmaceutical company know the information and then start research on arthritis in which case the fierce competition will make the price is low and the entire industry unprofitable. Thus, to enhance the credibility of the assertion the author should provide evidence that it is hard for new company to produce drugs for arthritis.
  
  The author assume further that Becton Pharmaceuticals will not make great money because the patents of its main produce-Xenon-will expires in three years and other companies will consequently be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. The author neglects the fact that Becton Pharmaceuticals, as a big company with good research groups and plans for the future, may produce new products in three years. Even if it does not produce new products, it does not mean that patients will buy products from other companies. The company may have a good reputation in customers and when other companies access to the technique, it can sells its products with lower price, in other word, the company is still competitive.
  
  The author asserts that Perkins Pharmaceuticals will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company in ten years in his or her final sentence. The evidence for that is the company' new product perform better than xenon in clinical studies. But preferred in clinical studies does not necessary mean that it will sold well since that it may be very expensive and it only perform better for extreme patients, we are not informed how it perform as to ordinary arthritis patients. Lack of evidence it is possible that xenon will still better for ordinary patients who make up of the most part of overall arthritis patients, consequently, Perkins Pharmaceuticals will cannot make great money from Xylan and cannot be the most profitable pharmaceutical company.

  Sum up, the assertion relies on a series of unsubstantial facts render it incredible as it stands. To convince me, the author should tell me if it is universal accepted that the population of arthritis patients will increase dramatically and it is hard for new companies to produce the correspond drugs. I also want to know how the research works are going on in Becton pharmaceuticals and the performance of Xylan for ordinary patients. The author may have to survey that if the price of the new product will accepted by most patients.

第一篇argument,各位多拍啊，感激不尽