Argument47[AWER小组] 自己修改

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47     Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

2008-2-1   time:7:14-7:40   words:431
2月咯，越来越近啦……加油！

At the first glance, the scientists’ reasoning seems to be quit sound. According to their conclusion, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption. To supports it the scientists reasons that no record of a sudden bright flash of light which must create when a large meteorite collision happened, so the cooling should not be caused by collision. Then the author dues a loud boom to a volcanic eruption, since draw this conclusion. But unfortunately, if we make a careful consideration of their evidence, doubt will be cast on this conclusion.
To begin with, according to the fact that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler, the scientists’ unfairly indicates a volcanic eruption cause the cooling. Yet the argument suffers from “either-or” reasoning. The they neglects the possibilities that geographic active incur the two-pole ice melt and spread to the whole Earth, or perhaps there was a certain specie lived on the Earth and destroyed the environment. Then the environment becomes unbalance of ecosystem reflected by the cooling.
Additionally, even if the cooling contributes to either of a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite the scientists fails to prove that the cooling is only attributable to a volcanic eruption. They are merely claims that a large meteorite collision would create a sudden bright flash of light, however, no relative evidence of such flash is recorded. Firstly, when the collision happened, it is not necessarily assume that such flash would be product. Since we cannot deny the universe has a big change, the flash would be happen today cannot infer the past would be did same. Secondly, there are no records about such flash might due to relative records have been damaged.
Moreover, even assuming the cooling as a result of a volcanic eruption is substantiated the scientists cannot persuade me that a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic. It is entire possibility that a large meteorite collision would be give out such a sound. And that a loud boom only occurred in Asian, especially consider this sound is records by Asian. Without ruling out those alternative factors the scientists cannot convince me.  
After pointing out so many unreasonable flaws in the argument, now we can say that the reasons used to bolster the conclusion cannot be justifiable. The scientists must inform me that only was the cooling caused by either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth, and that a sudden bright flash of light has indeed not happened in history. For that matter, more detail about the loud boom.

谢谢来拍:loveliness: