Argument147 [老兵小组]第一次作业

michael_1984UID: 2327441

The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

1，没有给出销量下降的原因，也许一直都有lifelike graphics.
2，具有特点，也不一定导致买的好，销量还和其他因素有关，例如情节，价格，甚至和大的经济环境
3，作者说开发的主要是针对10-25岁，而调查没有确定调查对象的年龄段，可能调查的结果并不代表10-25岁的人的观点，他们也许认为情节的刺激性，趣味性更能吸引他们

The author cites a survey indicating the most important features appealing Whirlwind video game players. According to the survey, the author points out a project of Whirlwind directing at people 10-25, who are most likely play video games. On the basis of these evidence, the author claims that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase in the next few months. Close scrutiny of these evidence, however, lend little credible support to the author's claim.

The threshold problem is the author fails to points out what are the reasons for the decline of the sales of Whirlwind video games. It is entirely possible that lacking lifelike graphics is unnecessary to cause the decline. Or even Whirlwind video games are never lacking lifelike graphics. Perhaps it is other reasons for the decline of the sales, such as the economic depression, or enacting several stricter regulations about the content of the video games. In each event, the author could not justifiably rely on the mere survey to support his or her claim.

Another problem worth considering is the author falsely equates a correlation with a cause effect relationship. The correlation between the feature- lifelike graphics- and sales cannot prove that the former lead to the later, although a high correlation is a evidence of causation, in itself it is insufficient. It is entirely possible that there are many other factors might contribute to sales, such as the price, the plot, and the characters in the game. Since the author fails to rule out these possibilities, his or her conclusion cannot be taken seriously.

The third problem is that the author has a logical flaw in his prediction of the effectiveness of the advertising campaign directed at 10-25 years old. The author fails to provide any information about age constitution of the survey’s participants. So, the inference from the survey may not apply into the 10-25 people. It is wholly possible that the feature of video games most appealing 10 to 25 years old is not the lifelike graphics, instead, perhaps interesting content, exciting plot and impressive appearance of the figures in the game are more crucial to appeal 10 to 25 years old players. The scenario above, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the author’s claim.

To sum up, the author cannot justify his or her claim on the basis of these scant evidence provided in the argument. To better support the claim, the author should offer more information about reasons for the decline of sales before.