argument130 [Jet小组]第十二次作业

x6xUID: 2180130

TOPIC: ARGUMENT130 - The following appeared in the annual report of a chain of stores that sell supplies for do-it-yourself home improvements.

"Current reports indicate that sales of new homes nationwide declined by 9 percent during the past year, while sales of existing homes increased by 16 percent. Thus we can expect that the percentage of homeowners who will be making repairs or improvements to their homes will also increase. In addition, people who buy existing homes will have more money left over after the purchase to spend on home improvements. Finally, people who buy existing homes are more likely to make improvements themselves, as opposed to paying someone else. These factors combined indicate we can expect an increasing demand for products in all our stores nationwide, thus increasing our profits in the coming year."

WORDS: 425          TIME: 00:30:00          DATE: 2008-2-27 22:21:17
提纲：
1.推不出 买旧房不一定要修缮
       买旧房的人不一定有富余金钱
2.证据缺失 没有证据说明买旧房的人更可能自己进行改造
3.偷换概念 需求增加=/=利润增加  （忽略了竞争）

The author of the report asserts that the profits of do-it-yourself home improvements in the chain of stores will increase in the coming year. At first glance, it seems reasoning and persuasive. However, further reflections tell me that I cannot agree with it for the following reasons.

To begin with, the author makes non-causal relationship. Firstly, people who buy existing homes will not necessarily make repairs or improvements. For an example, nowadays, more and more young lovers in cities of China choose to buy existing houses because of the high prices of new houses. However, living in a existing house is not their destination. They never give up reaching their dreaming living condition - a large clean new house. What is required to realize the dreams is just time. Therefore, it is common that they seldom repair or improve the existing houses they buy and several years later, they will sell or rent out them while buying new houses. Secondly, people buying existing homes are not always have more money left. Many people select to buy existing homes is not often because that they want to save money, but usually for the reason that they are free from better choices. The example of young lovers in cities mentioned above is just a case in point. Actually, after buying existing house, they have no more money left over.  

In addition, evidences are missed when we consider that people buying existing homes are more likely to make improvements themselves. People who buy existing house are either those who are lack of money or those who want to save money. It follows that for them, the first choice are always refusing to make repairs or improvements. What's more, even if some of them prefer to make houses better, they are still not necessary to buy DIY home improvements.  

Furthermore, inconsistent conclusion and extension are also made. The increase of demand is not equal to that of profit. In fact, there exits fierce competition when a large opportunity of increasing profits appears. Facing huge demands, other chains of stores may make marketing methods to occupy the sale market. As a result, the chains of stores the author belongs may have to do nothing but decrease the prices. Though pure sales may increase, the profit of every individual goods may drop the same time. Hence, whether the final profits will increase is not certain.   

In sum, this is a weal point. The statement given merely scratches the surface of what must be said about the sale condition of  do-it-yourself home improvements in the following year.