第十三次的作业

txjlionUID: 2445370

TOPIC: ARGUMENT170 - For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
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The seeming differentiation between the oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast and those from Gulf Coast leads the arguer to think of where the problems lies in. So the arguer arrives at the conclusion that once this factor, about harmful bacteria, was solved, the producers of Gulf Coast oyster will see the success of great profits. Plausible as the seasoning may be, the arguer concentrate too much on this sole possibility and neglect other contributable factors, and therefore make his argument unconvincing.

The harmful bacteria may not be the key for the price difference. The major problem with this argument is that the author unfairly consume that there must be causal relationship between the harmful bacteria on oysters from Gulf Coast and the low price of them. Although we are told that the trend of the changing of the price began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters, it is likely some other reasons contribute the price difference. For example, the cost for fostering oysters may raise, or maybe the change of climate make the taste of oysters worse. the author fails to rule out other alternative reasons, which may be contributable to the price difference, and cannot make his or her argument convincing.

Moreover, the favor of consumers in California does not reflect the choice of customers in other areas, may be others like the oysters from Gulf Coast. Firstly, the people in California may have a difference taste from those in other areas. So the prefer the oyster for their special taste. Secondly, other reasons, besides quality and taste, may make their preference, for example some super star, whose name is wildly-known in California, acts in advertisement of Gulf Coast's oysters. Many reasons could cause the preference.

The author takes it for granted that the process, devised for killing the bacteria by scientists, will help a lot to insure the quality of the oysters from Gulf Coast, and therefore gives rise to the markup and bring good profits. We have good reasons to doubt it for several reasons. Firstly, we do not know the process will work or not on real process of producing. The process is successful in lab, but processes differentiate a lot between in lab and in factory. Secondly, even though we suppose the process dose work in factory for producing oysters, this additional process is likely to cost quite highly, and raise the price of oysters from Gulf Coast. If this happens, it is probably meaningless to look for high profits.

If the author can not rule out other reasons, even if the problem of harmful bacteria is solved, the preference of customers in California may still continue.

In summary,  the conclusion lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains. To make it more convincing, the author would have to provide reliable evidence support the causal relationship between harmful bacteria and the low price. To better evaluate the argument; we would need more information regarding the effect of the process for killing bacteria.