A147

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147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."-

The conclusion in the editorial, recommended by the author, is that the sales of Whirlwind video games will raise greatly in the next few months. To bolster this recommendation, the author provides evidence that several games, which have lifelike graphics and the most up-to-date computers, have just been introduced with an extensive advertising campain to people 10 to 25 years old by Whirlwind. Moreover, he states that the people 10 to 25 years old are most likely to play video games. Additionally, he quotes a recent investigation for the sake of strengthening this conclusion. Rigid scrutiny of each of these taking points, nevertheless, discloses that no one can lend support to the conclusion credibly. It suffers from several fallacies, which leads it unconvincing as it stands.

Most distinctly,the result of the survey seems suspicious. The claim seldom indicates how the poll was guided, who responded and whether the survey reflects the reality, in another word, whether the respondents' answers represent their real thoughts. The respondents were asked about the most important features they thought. It is impossible that the people who responded this question choose the games which require the most up-to-date computer and offer lifelike grahics to a certainty. Perhaps they like play other games such as the devil's bookes online, Line Rider, or some small palm games. Furthermore, we are not informed that the respondents' ages and professions. It is entirely possible that the respondents are not included 10 to 25 years old people. And it is equally possible that the respondents are the adherents of the company, even the employees. If so, the result of this survey is meaningless and doubtful, for the reason that the respondents have no representativeness. Lacking more information about the respondents and the concrete content of the survey, it is fallacious to draw any conclusion at all.

In addition, the result of the investigation mentioned above, even if, can prove that the people of 10 to 25 years old prefer the lifelike graphics games requiring the most up-to-date computer. The conclusion of this argument is cursory. As far as we know, profit is a factor of not only revenue but also cost. The author depends on an unwarrant assumption that the profit will increase without thinking about its costs. The editorial affords no information about the costs of game execution. Probably, the costs may offset, even outweigh the revenue. The expenditure of an extensive advertising may be costly. And the number of consumers might hardly guarantee sufficient profit for the company as the author imagines. It is also likely that it will pay high salary to the game producers who are employed to these lifelike graphic games, and this must take much more in the costs. Furthermore, at the beginning of this editorial the author refers to the decline concerning the sales of Whirlwind video game in the past two years.Taking these measures will bring great burthen on the basis of previous depression undoubtedly. What's more, suppose that there are some mighty competitors exist in this area, that will be disadvantageous to the Whirlwind in market competition. Additionally, plenty of other unlooked-for occurences, such as unfavorable economic condition, scanty human resources and so forth, will not efficient as the editoral predicts so profitable in the future. In brief, whether the company can get profit remains to be doubtful without any information about supply, demand and production costs at any rate.

To sum up, merely based on certain questionable assumptions and unpersuasive proof, the author fails to justify this editorial. True the intention that Whirlwind company makes these sorts of video games to reverse their depression is well-meaning. However, to intensify the recommendation, it needs further survey and rational analysis; to convince the people, it needs clear evidence that the people indeed prefer these Whirlwind video games; to better estimate the author's affirmation, it needs more information concerning the supply, demand and product costs, more importantly, the economic condition.