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14.The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb
Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
字数:558 时间:60m
In this argument, the arguer asserts that Green Gardening Center can increase their profits through expanding the variety of vegetable seeds. To support his argument, the arguer made an expectation that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables with two evidences--a national survey and sale records of a local magazine. Although the argument seems sound and convincing, it contains several severe fallacies.
First of all, the arguer claims that one reason of that people would like to grow their own vegetables is that according to a national survey, consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. However, the survey notional wide, would not stand for the satisfied attitude of local consumers for such possible reasons. On one hand, local people seldom shop in supermarket, let alone buy vegetables there. On the other hand, local people are satisfied with fresh vegetables offered by local supermarket, if they buy and dissatisfaction of fresh vegetables existed all over the country except this suburban town. Besides, even if they are not satisfied with vegetables in local supermarket, they would not choose to grow own vegetables. Maybe consumers would buy fresh vegetables in neighbor town or decrease the quantity of vegetables eaten daily. Therefore, unless the arguer rules out such possibilities, the argument would never be strongly supported.
Secondly, another reason for the arguer to deduce the increase interests in growing vegetables among consumers is that a local magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. However, when supply this evidence to support his argument, the arguer misses some points that what kind of magazine Great Gardens is and what the circulation of this magazine is. It could be entirely possible that there are only 10 Great Gardens available in Village News stands and the content of Great Gardens is not about how to grow vegetables but flowers. Both possibilities would fall to prove that consumers are becoming interested in growing their own vegetables. Therefore, the arguer should take such possibilities discussed above into consideration.
Finally, admittedly that consumers are becoming interested in growing vegetables, but there is no warrant to make profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetables seeds they stock for gardeners that coming spring. Firstly, the dissatisfaction of fresh vegetables would probably decrease in the coming spring, which would be useless for the company stock seeds. Secondly, if consumers grow vegetables, they may be only interested in several vegetables, which would be an wrong decision to expanding the variety of vegetable seeds. Thirdly, profit is constituted of two parts: revenue and cost. In this consequence, the great expanding of vegetable seeds would cost much and the stock of seeds would cost even more because vegetable seeds should be kept in special places with rigorous requirement. Therefore, if the arguer wants his argument reasonable and convincing, he should have to make further study on the market of vegetable seeds.
To sum up, the arguer omits several essential aspects in arguing, which leads to the illogical and unwarranted of the argument. To strength the argument, the arguer should have to use reliable evidence to show the interests of growing vegetables. Besides, the arguer should have to offer more information about the market of vegetable seeds to demonstrate that stock stratagem will make profits.
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