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发表于 2008-7-29 08:02:22
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2008-7-28
TOPIC: ARGUMENT20 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
WORDS: 378 TIME: 00:30:00 DATE: 2008-7-28 16:16:11
In this letter, the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette suggests that in order to reduce the number of accidents, the government should limiting the number of rentals mopeds from six moped and bicycle rental companies. To support his conclusion, he points out that last year, the neighboring island of Torseau council executes the some limits on moped rentals, and then, the moped accidents attained the 50 percent reduction. However, there are several logical faults in this letter, which couldn't be guarantee of warrant.
The first problem of the letter is that an untenable(防守不住的, 站不住脚的, 不能维持的, 支持不住的) causality between an increasing number of people and an growing number of accidents. The writer does provide any evidence to show people come to this town will cause more accidents. Perhaps, they just come here holiday and just living in a silence place nearby this town, or perhaps, they come to this city for study instead of looking around, which won't increasing the pressure of traffic, even the accident. Maybe with the increasing number of cars in the streets, drivers will drive more carefully than before.
The second problem of the letter is that rental mopeds are not the only one or even the important one that contribute to the accidents. Since the cars are rented from the company, the driver would pay more attention to use. Maybe it is the local provide mopeds cause the majority number of accidents. Without ruling out of this possibility, it is unfair to limit the number of rental mopeds of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day.
Even if the editor can illuminate all the possibilities I provided above. The analogy of its neighboring island of Torseau as another evidence is still unconvinced. The writer ignores the differences between these two towns. Perhaps, Torseau's town has more tourists during the summer, most of the accidents were caused by rental mopeds and so on.
In sum, what the editor writes in his letter is unwarranted. If he wants his opinion was accepted by others, he must provide the detail of the causes of accidents, and relation between accidents and rental mopeds. He should also make sure that the method used in Torseau, will work in his town. |
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