argument65【today is the day小组】第三次作业 by ooowr1

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.

"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

  In this argument, the speaker concludes that the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. To verify his argument, the speaker cites the survey of Cheeses of the World magazine, which indicates that people prefer to choose the domestic cheese presently. The speaker also points out that the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Though the speaker's reasoning seems to be appealing, we may still detect that this argument is dependant on a set of unsubstantiated assumptions, and is therefore unpersuasive and questionable as it stands.
  First of all, the article's author has not shown the survey upon which the argument depends to be statistically reliable. Namely, the speaker provides no evidence that the number of the subscribers are statistically significant or that the subscribers were representative of all of the cheese-buyer in general. That is to say, this survey merely involves a part of consumer of cheese. It is entirely possible that subscribers are not representative of all. Lacking the information about the randomness and the size of the survey sample, it is impossible to draw any firm conclusions based on the survey.
  Another problem that undermines the argument is that the speaker overlooks other factors that result in the fact that improving profits in all of our stores. According to the speaker's assumption, the conclusion that the best way to improve profits is to concentrate primarily on domestic cheese is merely due to the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin in last year. However, in any possible aspect, this is simply not the truth. Perhaps domestic cheese costs high prices and if our store defers to the speaker's suggest that buying large quantities of domestic cheeses may be losses a lot of money. In short, in order to properly conclude that concentrating primarily on domestic cheeses will let our stores improve profits, the speaker must rule out all other feasible explanations for the disparity.
  Moreover, the argument based on a false analogy that the best-selling cheeses at other stores will be domestic cheeses in future. However, the speaker fails to provide any evidence to support this assumption. The fact that the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheese does not indicate that domestic cheese will be acceptable in other stores. It is entirely possible that the Wisconsin cheese company have held some promotion in our newest store. Or perhaps, alien cheeses were selling briskly in other stores; we have to transport the imported cheese to others from newest store, so the local people have to buy domestic cheeses. Thus, given these possible scenarios, the fact of sales in newest store proves nothing about future sales.
  In sum, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen it, the author must provide clear evidence that the survey's subjects reflect the overall. To better evaluate the conclusion, we would need more details about imported cheese and domestic cheese, and more information about sales of other stores.