argument 235 【7\8\9\10】 (第21次作业)

野猪大改造UID: 2484392

"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."

In this argument, the author concludes that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. To justify this conclusion, the author points out the decreased sales of recorded music, the fact that the number of older people in the listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of listeners has recently declined, a survey conducted before the recent election and a successful experience of neighboring cities. However, this argument contains several facets that are open to doubt.

To begin with, the author relies on the fact that the number of older people in the listening area has increased dramatically while the total number of listeners has recently declined to assume that the decline of total number of listeners dues to the old people's dislike of rock-and-roll music. However, the author fails to consider and rule out other explanations for the decline of total number of listeners. For instance, it is entirely possible that young listeners now have a growing preference for jazz music rather than rock-and-roll music. Moreover, there is a good chance that the poor quality of music programs is responsible for the lost of listeners. Any of these and other factors might contribute to the decreased number of listeners. Without ruling out this and other possible factors, the author cannot draw a conclusion that it is the old people's dislike of rock-and-roll music contributes to the decline of total number of listeners.

The second problem in this problem is that the author claims that the listeners of radio station KNOW do not like rock-and-roll music as much as before on the basis of the decreased sales of recorded music. However, the individuals who bought the records are not representative of the listeners. On the contrary, the person who is willing to buy a record is the very one who does not listen to radio frequently. Thus, the author rests on the unrepresentative statistic to make an unfounded conclusion.  
Finally, I must point out another fallacy in this argument. The author commits a false analogy between the radio station KNOW and other news stations in neighboring cities. While the author fails to provide evidence to justify the assumption that the listeners of KNOW is similar to other stations. Thus, it is entirely possible that the listeners of other stations are more concerned with news while the listeners of KNOW are more willing to listen to music.

To sum up, the author's argument that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format is unconvincing. To support the argument, the author must find out the exact cause of the decline of KNOW’s total number of listeners. To better evaluate the argument, the author may need to conduct a survey to get more accurate information on the taste of listeners.