[FF小组] 第二次作业 argument65 by felips

felipsUID: 2473490

TOPIC: ARGUMENT65 - The following appeared in a memo from the president of a chain of cheese stores located throughout the United States.
"For many years all the stores in our chain have stocked a wide variety of both domestic and imported cheeses. Last year, however, the five best-selling cheeses at our newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin. Furthermore, a recent survey by Cheeses of the World magazine indicates an increasing preference for domestic cheeses among its subscribers. Since our company can reduce expenses by limiting inventory, the best way to improve profits in all of our stores is to discontinue stocking many of our varieties of imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses."

WORDS: 684          TIME: 00:00:31          DATE: 2008-11-8 21:51:28




It seems an obvious conclustion at the first glance that the profits of all the cheese stores can be improved if all the stores discontinue
stocking imported cheese and concentrate primarily on domestic cheeses. After all, the top 5 best-selling cheeses in the newest shop
are domestic while a survey indicates that domestic cheeses are more preferred.

However, this conclusion may be drawn in hasty and cause the chain store all over the country loss its customers.
In the case provided, the five best-selling cheeses at the newest store were all domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin last year.
This evidence is undermined due to several flaws. To begin with, even the five best-selling cheeses are domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin,  it doesn't indicate that other domestic cheeses are in a good sell as well. The author does not provide exact statistics
to compare the difference in the amount between domestic and imported cheeses being sold out. It is completely possible that other domestic cheeses are not sold out as good as imported cheeses, and the total amount of imported cheeses being sold out can well out-numbered that of domestic cheeses. Even domestic cheeses is better sold out than imported cheese, the difference is not significant
enough to support the conclusion.
What's worse, the case provided is in last year, the argument commit the fallacy of "All Things are Equal". Is the quality and the price of the five best-selling cheeses remain the same? Are there other oversea cheese competitor this year? Are people's taste remain the same? Unless the argument provide evidence that the situation will not change over years, it is unwarranted and can be fallacious.

Even in the newest store sold domestic cheeses are well out-numbered that of imported cheeses, it is only one of the national wide
chain and is not able to represent other stores located all over the nation. The argument fails to consider the regional difference.
The demographics of the population in region where this newest store located is important. Is domestic cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin are more preferred by most residents in that area? The citizens there could be mostly from Wisconsin who are more used to the favor and texture of those cheddar cheeses from their hometown. In addition, geographic factors is not taken into account. Is the newest store located in or near Wisconsin? If so, then the cost of delivering Wisconsin-made cheese would be much lower since the distance is
short, and of the same cause, the cheeses will be fresher due to less time are spent during delivering.  all these can be the reason why cheddar cheeses from Wisconsin are on the best-selling list.


What about the survey conducted by the Cheeses of the World magazine? Behind its seemingly reliable and convincing result lie several holes. Does the conductor share interests with the chain store? If so, then the questions in the survey may be leading and the result may say favor of the chain store. In general, samples of the survey should be randomly selected and able to represent all the cheese buyer, however, from the survey quoted in this argument, no sign of such precedure can be found.  People from different places could have quite different tastes, however, the population in the survey could mainly consists from Wisconsin, who love cheeses made in their
hometown. Foreigner could be excluded in the survey who could possibly more like imported cheeses. Finally, the number of respondents is not mentioned explicitly in the argument.  How many people are involved in this survey? 10? 100? 1000? Is there enough
samples to give a valid result? Lacking such information, the conclusion is not well-supported.

In summary, the argument, which  seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. To be more convincing,
more evidence are needed, such as selling records from all the stores. Factors which can affect the sell of cheeses such as
regional favor, price, distance between store and cheese producer... should be taken into account. It can be further improved
by adopting random and unbiased sampling in a wider range of survey.