Arguement109 第一次作业TT请批

中心是悼UID：2190511

题目：ARGUMENT 109 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Maple City newspaper.
"Twenty years ago Pine City established strict laws designed to limit the number of new buildings that could be constructed in the city. Since that time the average housing prices in Pine City have increased considerably. Chestnut City, which is about the same size as Pine City, has over the past twenty years experienced an increase in average housing prices similar to Pine City, but Chestnut City never established any laws that limit new building construction. So it is clear that laws limiting new construction have no effect on average housing prices. So if Maple City were to establish strict laws that limit new building construction, these laws will have no effect on average housing prices."
字数：414          用时：1:06:59          日期：2007-3-6
    The arguer cite a contrast between Pine City in which strict laws were established to limit the new buildings and Chestnut City where no such laws were established to document his recommend that the insignificance of setting laws on new buildings' restriction in Maple City. It seems valid at first glance,  however, close scrutiny reveals that this argument contains several logical flaws which render it unconvincing.
   To start with, the agruer consider only the factor of size but not other differences that also critically infulnce the housing prices between Pine City and Chestnut City, it is probably that the population in CC is larger  than that in  PC,which will make a considerable contribution to boost the housing price, or perhaps people in CC earn more than PC during those years and  the price level gets much higher  in  CC, so the price of houing in CC is kept pace with which in PC. Without considering and ruling these and other factors that might have sever to rise the housing price in the two cities metioned above,the arguer can not justifiable conclude that the laws' inefficacy.
    Even if the law really influnce in vain in the past twenty years, the arguer providing no evidence about the constant state of milieu in two cities from twenty years ago to now, it is entirely possible that the situation that increasingly more people resident in PC during these years, making the former sufficient supply of house reversed, in that way the law would go into effort. or perhaps the present officers have revised some articles and enact a more effective law. Lacking of such evidence the arguer cannot convince me that the law of limiting the quantity of new buildings won't work in present situation.
    Finally, even if the arguer can substantiate all of the foregoing assumptions, that is he proved it's useless to set such law in PC, the claim that the establishment of such laws in Maple City will have no effect on average housing prices is still unwarranted. As the arguer does not metion whether the conditions in these three cities are the same, so they are not similar enough to justify the analogical deduction, and won't lead to the arguer's conclusion.
    In sum, the scant evidence the arguer cites proves little about the recommendation he reasons.To strengthen the argument the arguer should show more about the environments among three cities to testify  their housing prices are comparable, and the influence of time serves little.

[ 本帖最后由 中心是悼 于 2007-3-6 01:10 编辑 ]