ARGUMENT57 8月14日习作，决战830战队，兄弟们拍呀

melodyli9361UID: 2121345

555,和我今天发的issue一样不限时写的，又写多了

57. The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction  developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can beprevented as well."

The writer of the newsletter recommends health experts to inform the public that Zorba helps prevent the recurrence of ulcer to prevent first-time ulcers on the basis of a study which showed 25% first-time ulcer patients taking Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers in comparison with the 75% recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Seemingly logic at the first glance, however, the study, the generalization and the recommendation are doubtful after due examination.

In the first place, the scant statistical information of the cited study leaves with us many surrogates instead of the effect of Zorba that would also explain the difference. The letter fails to mention who conducted the study, how the respondents are selected and the number of patients. If the study conductor is the company that sells Zorba, or any institution that would benefit from the positive-effect report, then the credibility of the study should be reexamined for the lack of disinterestness. Also, it is possible that the patients who are unlikely to suffer from ulcer again are selected by the doctors to take Zorba, maybe because some ingredient in Zorba are too strong for the weaker patients while help the stronger in other ways. Moreover, the writer fails to mention the number of patients being studied thus we can not know that the number is large enough to be representative--maybe only four patients took Zorba while one of them suffered from ulcer again. Without ruling out these possibilities, the result of the study is unpersuasive as it stands.

Nevertheless, even if we could accept that Zorba can prevent the recurrence of ulcers, hasty generalization should not be committed by asserting that Zorba can prevent first-time ulcers. Factors such as these could undermine the generalizability of the result: it is quite possible that the mechanism of Zorba is to help the synthesis of antibodies against ulcer, which do not exist in individuals who have never had that illness before; also, Zorba is an auxiliary remedy to the medicine prescribed by the doctors. The writer should provide more direct evidence concerning the ability of Zorba to prevent first-time ulcers.

Thirdly, given that taking Zorba can prevent both the recurrence and first-time occurrence of ulcer, informing the general public of its effects is still not sufficient to prevent first-time ulcers, since factors as follows may inhibit the citizens from taking Zorba. In this information booming era, or in another word, the advertisement booming era, who would pay much attention to what so-called "health experts" recommend? In this case, the suggestion of taking Zorba is quite likely to be considered as a kind of advertisement. Even if the majority of people do believe the recommendation, the price of Zorba may still deter many people from taking the pills, while the others who actually take Zorba regularly may be the ones whose financial conditions and health habit are good enough to avoid ulcer, which is usually caused by bad eating habits and psychological stress.

In sum, the reasons listed above all weaken the writer's assertion. To strengthen the argument, the writer needs to provide us more detailed information concerning the study, the mechanism of Zorba, and the group of people who would take Zorba as recommended.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-8-14 at 19:12 ]