argument59 我的第一篇，感谢指导

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第一次发文，阅读了有关条文，也不知道有没有弄错。希望大家能即使指正，呵呵。这也是写的第一篇完整的文章，希望得到大家的指点，共同进步。 祝所有G友好运：）


argument59: The following appeared in an artical in the health section of a newspaper.

"According to the available medical records, the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in 1729, 1830, 1918, 1957, 1968, and 1977.

These were all years with heavy sunspot activity-that is, years when the Earth recerived significantly more solar energy than in normal years. People at particular risk for the flu should therefore avoid prolonged exposure to the Sun."

Syllabus
1.The author does not point out that weather during the years metioned above there other events happened that might connected with the flu epidemics.
2.The author does not describe a comprehensive concept of the have sunspot activity.
3.Even if the flu is begetted by the heavy sunspot activity, the arguer does no support any evidences to point out that if the people at particular risk for the flu can be safe without exposuring to the sun.

正文
The arguer draws that the people at particular risk for flu epidemic should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun to prevent the flu. To support the conclusion, the
arguer point out that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics during the past 300 years occurred in the years with heavy sunspot activity. In addition, the author explains that the years with the heavy sunspot activity is years when the earth received significantly more solar energy than in normal years. In my point of view, the argument suffers from many logical flaws.

First of all, the author fails to establish the causal relationship between the fact that the six worst worldwide flu epidemics occurred during the past 300 years and the claim that they were arise by the heavy sunspot activity. The arguer neglects the other important incidents, such as the appearance of new kinds of virus that could not be controlled immediately, which can also start a flu. Just depending on the sole coincidence that the years when the flu broke out was the years with heavy sunspot activity, the argument is dubious.

Secondly, the arguer does not describe a comprehensive concept of the have sunspot activity. In the argument, the arguer only points out that in the years with heavy sunspot activity the earth receives significantly more solar energy than in normal years. However, admittedly the solar radial in the years with heavy sunspot activity
may different from the normal years. No doubted, the different solar radial can affect many kind of organism on the earth. Maybe the solar radial makes certain animals not prevent some kinds of flu virus that can be killed by the animals themselves in the normal years, and then the flu virus be touched by the human. In other ways, the heavy sunspot activity may also changes the climate of the earth. Maybe the changed climate can make people easier infect the flu virus or make the flu virus spread more easier. Without a more detailed description of the sunspot activity, the arguer's conclusion is not warranted.

Finally, the arguer fails to draw a correct conclusion that depends on the evidences that are addressed by the author. Even if the flu epidemics are arised by the heavy sonspot activity, the people at particular risk for the flu do not need to avoid the sun in normal years. The author does not provide any concerns that point out the solar energy received by the earth in the years with heavy sunspot activity has the same effect as in the normal years. As we know, taking sunshine properly is good for our health, because the sunshine can kill virus.

In sum, the author fails to adequately support the conclusion that the people at particular risk for flu epidemic should avoid prolonged exposure to the sun to prevent
the flu. To strengthen the argument, the arguer must provide clear evidence that no other incidents occurred in the years presented in the argument can also arise flu, and support a particular concept of the heavy sunspot activity. To better evaluate the conclusion, we need more information comparing the different effects of the sunshine in the years with heavy sunspot activity and in the normal years.(536 words)