argument190 第35高频 典型的反证法--求拍~~~

hokuto8UID: 2188958

我当时一看到这题，就觉得可以连用两个反证法，但是不知道这样仅用题目内部的语言作为反驳证据的写法，而不列举其它alternative explanation，是否可以算做有力的反驳，因为这样好像是诡辩~~:O~~

提纲：
1）预售票 不等于 上座率
2）正因为天气，才卖不好
3）正因为现代音乐和Richerts的音乐，上座率才低

TOPIC: ARGUMENT190 - The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.

"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."



In this letter, the author commends a strategy of featuring more modern music and including music composed by Richerts, in order to increase advance ticket purchases and to increase attendance at the concerts. However, I find several flaws in the line of reasoning and evidence given in the letter.

The major problem of this argument is that the author unfairly assumes that advance ticket purchases can represent the attendance at the concerts. Actually, as we all know, two kinds of tickets are available for public: one is advance ticket and the other is common ticket. Perhaps the tickets have been sold out until the day of concerts and 90 percent of them are common tickets. Hence, it is absurdly to purport that the advance tickets purchases has declined, indicating lack of community support.

Even the concert actually loses the community support, the author falsely impute it to the choice of music. Without logical and scientifical illation, the author negates the possible reason of bad weather condition. Actually, on the contrast, it is entirely possible that people are prone to buy common tickets a few days before concerts in order to enjoy the concert in wonderful weather. Because unpredictable weather makes it hard to foretell how the weather would be on the day of concert, and the earlier the one buy an advance ticket, the more difficult he foresight the weather. For the matter, it is so unfortunate for the people who purchase advance tickets that they have to attend the concerts in bad weather, if they are unwilling to waste the money.

Even it is the choice of music that results in the lack of support, the strategy of featuring more modern music and including music composed by Richerts is not the direct solution. As it mentioned in the letter that “feature more modern music”, meaning that modern music had been already played on current concert, it is entirely possible that it is the modern music unpopular with public. At the same time, because Richerts’ recordings are the best-seller, residents are so familiar with his music that they will not go to the concert featuring his music. If it is the case, the strategy will not work.

In conclusion, this argument is specious. To bolster it the author must provide more evidence about the factual attendance at the concerts. The author must also investigate the real reason of the declined tickets sales, and modify the recommendation to account for other measures needed to increase the advance tickets purchases and to increase attendance at the concerts.

帮忙拍拍~~~~

欢迎求砖的，留链必回拍，issue或argu都可以。:handshake

PrudenceUID: 2286952

In this letter, the author commends a strategy of featuring more modern music and including music composed by Richerts, in order to increase advance ticket purchases and to increase attendance at the concerts. However, I find several flaws in the line of reasoning and evidence given in the letter.

The major problem of this argument is that the author unfairly assumes that advance ticket purchases can represent the attendance at the concerts. Actually, as we all know, two kinds of tickets are available for public: one is advance ticket and the other is common ticket. Perhaps the tickets have been sold out until the day of concerts and 90 percent of them are common tickets. Hence, it is absurdly（absurd） to purport that the advance tickets purchases has declined, indicating lack of community support. 不是支持率不高

Even the concert actually loses the community support, the author falsely imputes it to the choice of music. Without logical and scientifical (去掉) illation, the author negates the possible reason of bad weather condition. Actually, on the contrast, it is entirely possible that people are prone to buy common tickets a few days before concerts in order to enjoy the concert in wonderful weather. Because unpredictable weather makes it hard to foretell how the weather would be on the day of concert, and the earlier the one buy an advance ticket, the more difficult he foresight the weather. For the matter, it is so unfortunate for the people who purchase advance tickets that they have to attend the concerts in bad weather, if they are unwilling to waste the money. (关于这个驳论点，我想到的是，如果参加的人比买预售票的人还少呢？)  是天气的原因

Even it is the choice of music that results in the lack of support, the strategy of featuring more modern music and including music composed by Richerts is not the direct solution. As it mentioned in the letter that “feature more modern music”, meaning that modern music had been already played on current concert, it is entirely possible that it is the modern music unpopular with public. At the same time, because Richerts’ recordings are the best-seller, residents are so familiar with his music that they will not go to the concert featuring his music. If it is the case, the strategy will not work.  支持率不高那应该不是音乐种类的问题吧？

In conclusion, this argument is specious. To bolster it the author must provide more evidence about the factual attendance at the concerts. The author must also investigate the real reason of the declined tickets sales, and modify the recommendation to account for other measures needed to increase the advance tickets purchases and to increase attendance at the concerts.

[ 本帖最后由 Prudence 于 2007-4-14 12:10 编辑 ]