Argument117 ［加州阳光］第四次作业 想拍就拍~

benniUID: 2166321

------题目------

The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
'Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores.'


------提纲------

1、无效调查：人数及职业
2、无据推理：可能不需要那些设施
3、急于概括：竞争者，商品质量



------正文------

The business manager of Valu-Mart stores recommends that they should take advantage of a work-at-home trend showed in a survey by increasing the stock of home office machines and should also increase stock of office supplies. To support the recommendation, the author points out that: (1) a survey indicates the work-at -home trend;(2)Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in office-supply departments. Close scrutiny of the evidence, however, reveals that it lends no credible support to the recommendation.

In the first place, the poll cited by the author is too vague to be informative. We are not informed the number of the respondents and the occupation of them. Perhaps only ten people participated the survey and they fail to constitute a sufficient sample so as to be representative of all the workers. Or perhaps all of the respondents work in the similar fields and as a result the survey only reveals the trend in limited fields. Before the author provides more information about the poll, it contributes little to the recommendation.

Second, even assuming that the work-at-home trend indeed exists, it does not necessarily indicate that the workers need office machines at home. It is entirely possible that they just to type a project paper, to revise some designs via software, or to send an e-mail to a client. If so, the printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines are all meaningless to employees. Moreover, even if they need these machines, there is no indication that they will purchase them. It is more possible that the employees may leave copy and fax work to office time to avoid to buy those expensive office machines by their own salary.

Moreover, the author commits a fallacy of oversimplification. Actually, there are numerous factors influence the choice of consumers. Even assuming that workers do prepare to spend money on some office machines and other office supplies, it does not necessarily indicate that they will choose the production of Valu-Mart stores. It is equally possible that they will buy these machines and supplies in other stores rather than those of Valu-Mart stores for the reasons of price or quality of the commodities. In a word, the author oversimplifies the market and ignores the competitors.

Finally, another assumption lacking legitimacy is that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores. However, the author does not provide any information about other departments of Valu-Mart stores. Perhaps although the profit of office supply will increase as the manager asserts, it also relatively low compared to that of food department or clothes department.

In conclusion, the recommendation relies on some suspicious assumptions that make it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the argument the author must provide clear evidence--perhaps by a valid survey—that employees in several fields tent to work at home and they do intend to buy office machines and supplies. To better assess the recommendation, I would need to know the price and quality of commodities in Valu-Mart stores and those of the competitors.

jj7710UID: 204058

------题目------

The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.
'Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores.'


------提纲------

1、无效调查：人数及职业
2、无据推理：可能不需要那些设施
3、急于概括：竞争者，商品质量



------正文------

The business manager of Valu-Mart stores recommends that they should take advantage of a work-at-home trend showed in a survey by increasing the stock of home office machines and should also increase stock of office supplies. To support the recommendation, the author points out that: (1) a survey indicates the work-at -home trend;(2)Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in office-supply departments. Close scrutiny of the evidence, however, reveals that it lends no credible support to the recommendation.

In the first place, the poll cited by the author is too vague to be informative. We are not informed the number of the respondents and the occupation of them. Perhaps only ten people participated the survey and they fail to constitute a sufficient sample so as to be representative of all the workers. Or perhaps all of the respondents work in the similar fields and as a result the survey only reveals the trend in limited fields. Before the author provides more information about the poll, it contributes little to the recommendation.

Second, even assuming that the work-at-home trend indeed exists, it does not necessarily indicate that the workers need office machines at home. It is entirely possible that they just to type a project paper, to revise some designs via software, or to send an e-mail to a client. If so, the printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines are all meaningless to employees. Moreover, even if they need these machines, there is no indication that they will purchase them. It is more possible that the employees may leave copy and fax work to office time to avoid to buy those expensive office machines by their own salary.

Moreover, the author commits a fallacy of oversimplification. Actually, there are numerous factors influence the choice of consumers. Even assuming that workers do prepare to spend money on some office machines and other office supplies, it does not necessarily indicate that they will choose the production of Valu-Mart stores. It is equally possible that they will buy these machines and supplies in other stores rather than those of Valu-Mart stores for the reasons of price or quality of the commodities. In a word, the author oversimplifies the market and ignores the competitors.

Finally, another assumption lacking legitimacy is that office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of Valu-Mart stores. However, the author does not provide any information about other departments of Valu-Mart stores. Perhaps although the profit of office supply will increase as the manager asserts, it also relatively low compared to that of food department or clothes department.（呵呵，benni真是厉害，这一点我就没想到）

In conclusion, the recommendation relies on some suspicious assumptions that make it unconvincing as it stands. To bolster the argument the author must provide clear evidence--perhaps by a valid survey—that employees in several fields tent to work at home and they do intend to buy office machines and supplies. To better assess the recommendation, I would need to know the price and quality of commodities in Valu-Mart stores and those of the competitors.

不错，挺完美的，除了Even assumming用得有点频繁。