Argument45 北极鹿，欢迎来拍

july6thUID: 202569

1.北极不一定变暖了
2.即使北极变暖，并也不一定化
3.鹿不一定变少了
4.即使鹿变少，也不一定是由于天气变暖的缘故。
The argument, which analyses the relationship between the global warming trends and the decrease of arctic deer, is well-presented but not well-reasoned. The arguer, merely based on the unfounded assumptions, draws a conclusion that, the decline in arctic deer is the result of the warming trends. However, this does not constitute a logical argument in favor of its conclusion and fails to provide compelling support making this argument sound.
To begin with, lacking the specific weather information in arctic, it is too presumptuous to assert that, the temperature become higher just following the trends of global. Even most region all over the world become warm, there is no evidence proving that, the weather is becoming warmer as the same. Unless it can be shown that the global trend is representative of every area in the earth, the conclusion that arctic become warm is completely unwarranted.
Even the warming trend is spread all over the world, the arguer provide no assurance that such an increase of temperature will lead to the melting of ice there. It is entirely possible that, the temperature just decreased for only on degree, which has nothing to do with the structure of ice.
On the other hand, there is no sufficient evidence to assert that the amount of arctic deer is declining. As mentioned in the argument, such a statement is drawn by the local hunters, whose survey may be inaccurate. Needless to say, hunters made their own estimation by the result of hunting; perhaps other factors, such as durative snow, affect their results and induce them making the inaccurate judgment. As a result, the assertion of decline of arctic is not reliable.
Even if the population of deer deed decreased recently, it is also too arbitrary to judge the real cause of decline according the fact stated above. It is possible that other factors might also contribute to this problem. Maybe the plant on which the deer feed caught a fatal disease and influenced the food resource of deer; or the population of the natural enemies of arctic deer became large and limited the number of deer. Without ruling out these and other possible factors that give rise to the decline, the arguer cannot confidently concluded that, the decline of number is led by the warming trends.
In the final analysis, the reasoning behind the result seems logical as presented, yet actually is unconvincing. To better evaluate the validity of the argument, the arguer should provide more information about the factual population of deer, the temperature trend in the arctic as well as relationship between the deer and temperature.