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TOPIC: ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.
WORDS: 570 TIME: 0:32:35 DATE: 2006-11-2
The author claims that a phenomenon that Earth suddenly became significantly cooler in the mid-sixth century is due to a volcanic eruption. To support his assertion, the author states that some accounts found in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sum and extremely cold temperatures, as well as a estimation listing large meteorite colliding and volcanic eruption as two possible reasons, while excluding the former one. Such deduction seems sound at the first glance; however, it suffers from several critical questions.
Fundamentally, the author's basic evidence to prove the extremely cold temperatures are caused by a dimming of sun is not strong. As stated, few historical records survive from the time, making us doubt about the number of accounts found in Asia and Europe. It is entirely possible such accounts are the only several ones come from some folk legends, in a sense that during mid-sixth century, the Silk Road had been built and made Asia and Europe share several folk legends. Meanwhile, the situation in Asia and Europe can stand for that of the whole earth. To make the evidence strong enough to illustrate his assertion, the author need to state more details and analyze the accounts more effectively, as well as to find evidence which can tell about other continents.
Assuming the accounts truly exist and can convince us that a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures existed during the mid-sixth century, the author still fails to build a casual relation between these two phenomena. Other reasons are not excluded, including that certain celestial objects came across the earth orbit, causing abnormal situation of the earth's movement and so forth. Although a dimming of sun can certainly reduce the energy brought by sunlight, lack in details about its severity, and not excluding other reasons, we cannot believe the dimming of sun is the only reason caused the cold weather.
Even if the cold weather were caused by a dimming of the sun, as stated by the author, the assertion that only meteorite colliding and volcanic eruption are two possible reasons are not illustrated. Such a dimming of the sun may be due to the abnormal action of the sun itself, or a certain geologic change, which may also incur certain situation to cause the dimming of the sun. Without excluding such possibilities, it is unwarranted to identify meteorite colliding and volcanic eruption as two reasons of the dimming of the sun.
Additionally, even the statements mentioned above are all realities, the judgment that meteorite colliding did not happen is lack of evidence. The meteorite may collide into a place without civilization to record it, or it was recorded but still not discovered by us. On the other hand, a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption is not certainly consistent with a volcanic eruption. Such bloom may be caused by other events, and the surviving historical records may be misunderstood, as ancient record is diversified from what we are using today. Even if such a volcanic eruption happened, no evidence is provided to prove it caused the dimming of the sun.
To sum up, the assertion that the cold weather was caused by a volcanic eruption is not convincing, suffering from the above questions. To make his deduction more precise, the author needs more evidence and analysis, which can exclude other reasons, as well as to ensure the volcanic eruption as the only reason.
这次找了四个攻击点,每个攻击点里又有小点, 所以展开的比较多, 结果超时了....实在无法决定这些攻击点里怎么取舍, 另外一再重复"没证据"感觉也有些强词夺理. 而且在首段用了个超长的句子来概括题目....
另外发现AWP写到后面出字速度和回位清除速度会特别地慢,延迟好几秒, 不知道其他各位有没有遇到过这种问题? 考试的时候会不会出现延时? |
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