Argument 239[0710G 戴三个表冲刺小组] 第5次

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT239 - The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.

"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."
WORDS: 517          TIME: 00:45:00          DATE: 2007-7-30 13:43:07
In the argument, the arguer recommends that in order to reduce the crime rate Dalton should adopt a 10:00pm curfew which is the same as Williamsville did. In addition, the arguer also claims that such adoption will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors form becoming victims of crime. To justify the claim, the arguer cites the evidence that youth crime rate in Williamsville decrease since adopted such curfew. The arguer also provides information that no single crime has been reported in Williamsville's town square. A careful scrutiny of the whole argument would reveal how groundless the conclusion is.
In the first place, the arguer commits a fallacy of "after this, therefore because of this" in assuming that adopting a curfew in Williamsville has resulted in the decrease in the youth crime rite. The arguer fails to take other factors into consideration that may influence youth crime rite. Perhaps, Williamsville has adopted a curfew and at the meanwhile imposed on other safety policy or regulation, or made extensive campaign about educating importance of safety and so forth, which the arguer fails to mention. Thus, only if well balancing every relevant aspect, the arguer can make such conclusion. Additionally, even if youth crime rite has been declined as the result of adopting the curfew in Williamsville, whether the crime rite there at the meanwhile would decrease is open to doubt. Perhaps the youth crime rite reduced, while adult committed more crimes. Therefore, the arguer should provide more evidence to convince us that crime rite has been reduced as a result of imposing the curfew.
In the second place, the arguer commits a fallacy of false analogy. Even if the curfew in Williamsville make it successful that youth crime or the overall crime rite has been decreased, which is unwarranted assumption, the arguer unfairly assumes that the same curfew performs successfully in Dalton. The arguer fails to provide any evidence to convince that William and Dalton bear similarities in aspects of population, safety policy, the number of police and so on. Thus, whether the effect of imposing the curfew in Dalton is the same as that in Williamsville is worthy suspicious.

Last but not the least, even if adopting the curfew in Dalton could reduce the crime rite,  the result of controlling juvenile delinquency and protecting minors from being victims of crime is unwarranted. If awareness of safety still is ignored, the effect of imposing the curfew will be lagged behind. Therefore, whether the curfew will help to control juvenile delinquency and protect minors form becoming victims of crime is dubious.  

To sum up, the argument is not well reasoned as it stands. To bolster the claim, the arguer should provide more facts to convince us that Williamsville’s curfew is the only reason of reducing the youth as well as overall crime rite. Additionally, the arguer would have to convince us that the curfew in Williamsville would fitful for Dalton's situations and make crime rite of later reduce. Finally, the arguer should establish a causal relationship between adopting the curfew and control of juvenile delinquency and protection of minors.