argument 230，235，242，4， issue 184，168 fly aw 小组提纲

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argument 230，235，242，4
The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of the city of Transopolis. 【230】
"Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available."
1. 没有足够证据可以说明犯罪率的降低由于工厂的建立而引发的.也可能是该市的新的法律或居民再教育及素质提高造成的.
2. 也没有足够证据可以说清税收是由于工厂引发的.
3.10年的变化可以使今天的情况和10年前有区别,不易借鉴.

The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station. 【235】
"Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number of older people in our listening area has increased dramatically, while the total number of our listeners has recently declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of recorded music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful, and a survey taken just before the recent election shows that local citizens are interested in becoming better informed about politics."
1. 音像店录制音乐的销量的下降并不代表要将摇滚转变为新闻,因为网络或电台的播放使得乐迷不需要购买,只需要从述途径取得,如果网络音乐转变,就不能满足听众需求.
2. 本地居民对于及时地整治报道感兴趣,但也许更喜欢报纸,电视等途径得到,而不是听电台.如果是听电台,感兴趣并不代表会收听
3. 连个地区情况不同.
4. 老人年数量显著增加,并不代表要变换节目,因为他们不一定和喜欢新闻节目.

The following appeared as an editorial in the student newspaper of Groveton College. 【242】
"To combat the recently reported dramatic rise in cheating among college and university students, these institutions should adopt honor codes similar to Groveton's, which calls for students to agree not to cheat in their academic endeavors and to notify a faculty member if they suspect that others have cheated. Groveton's honor code replaced an old-fashioned system in which students were closely monitored by teachers and an average of thirty cases of cheating per year were reported. The honor code has proven far more successful: in the first year it was in place, students reported twenty-one cases of cheating; five years later, this figure had dropped to fourteen. Moreover, in a recent survey conducted by the Groveton honor council, a majority of students said that they would be less likely to cheat with an honor code in place than without."
1.30和后来的没有可比性.因为两者情况不同.
2. 五年后降到14起,也许并不能说明这种制度是有效的,因为可能达成共识就是不上报.
3.调查不可信,因为可能是样本量的问题.

The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site. 【4】
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."
1.10年前和10年后情况不同,不能说明F比A差
2.房产经纪人的素质可能不同,也许F用很少的人就能解决问题.
3. 收入也不能很好说明F差,因为A的人员多,费用大,没有开支,无法比对.

issue 184，168
168."Critical judgment of work in any given field has little value unless it comes from someone who is an expert in that field."
1. 只有被检验的才是有实际价值的.比如,药品的使用如果仅凭专家的评价就没有没有效果,只有临床才可以鉴定这种药品的真实价值. 政策的评价也是要符合群众的切身利益来是比较有实际效果的.
2. 也许有些判断需要其他领域的专家作出,比如环境学的,既要环境学,还要生态学的知识.因此任何领域不是片面的孤立的.
3. 对于需要权威鉴定的,由这个领域的专家作出实际价值的评定会有借鉴意义.

184."It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."
1.数据是分析基础,但是数据分析有片面性,数据分析法方不同,结论也可能不同,不能单纯依靠数据定论
2. 用定性描述也是可以很好说明问题,定论的.通过资料文献收集,可以对事物有概括性描述.
3. 最好两者结合.这样更加充分.