Argument117 【GREAW 小组第9次作业】有拍必回

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117.The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores. "Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."


In this argument, the author recommends that with some changes that taking advantage of work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines, their office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of their stores. This recommendation is based on the essay that over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home from the workplace than they were in the past，and the author points out that they will also increase stock of office supplies. The argument suffers from three critical fallacies.

First, a threshold problem with the argument involves the statistical reliability of the survey. The author provides no evidence that the number of respondents is statistically significant or that the respondents were representative of all office workers in general. Lacking information about the randomness and size of the survey’s sample, the author cannot make a convincing argument based on that survey.

Secondly, even though the survey is representative, the arguer unfairly assumes that the need of work-at-home machines really increases. However, the arguer fails to provide any evidence to support the assumption. Even though work at home is increasing, the office worker's home office machines may be enough, and do not need more. Since the arguer has failed to consider and rule out these possibilities, the arguer's assertion that they should increase at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office can not be taken seriously.

Thirdly, the arguer cannot assume further that the method of increasing the stock will really make profits. The arguer have no evidence to support the assumption above. Since both the quality and the sorts of machines can influence the sale, the arguer cannot conclude that the change will make office-supply departments become the most profitable ones. It is also possible that other departments can make more profits through all kinds of effective changes. Given the possible scenarios, the changes may provide nothing about the most profitable department.

In conclusion ,the author's argument lacks credibility because the evidence cited in the analysis does not lend strong support to what the arguer maintains .To strengthen it the author must provide more convincing evidence that the survey is representative .To better evaluate the argument we would need more information about whether the need of home office machine increases. We would also need to know that increasing the stock will indeed make much profit.