Argument117 [Jet小组}第九次作业

月亮熬的汤UID: 2382325

117The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
字数：465    时间：     日期：2008-2-20

The arguer maintains that their office-supply departments will reap the highest profit by increasing their stock of home office machines and supplies. He cited a survey, which shows a growing trend to take more work home from workplace, in support of his assertion. It seems to be somewhat convincing at first glace, but a further scrutiny of the assertion reveals several vital fallacies as it stands.

The threshold problem lies in the validity of the survey. First of all, the author fails to show us any information about how many interviewees are surveyed. It is possible that only ten people are surveyed, which makes the result of survey suspect. Furthermore, even assuming that adequate people are surveyed, there is still no evidence of how many people respond. If only ten people respond so, according to the statistics in the memo, only seven people are in favor of the result, then the result of the survey is not representative at all. Lastly, a lot of important information are omitted in this argument, like who conducted the survey and how this survey is conducted. Without these necessary information, the author can not convince us that the survey is scientific and representative.

Even if the survey is valid, the recommendation that more home office machines and supplies should be stocked still can not be drawn. Firstly, it is not reported in the survey that what kind of work is frequently brought home and what equipment is needed by the interviewees. There are possibilities that no home office machines and supplies are needed for the reason that they will finish the work which needs these machines and supplies in the office. In addition, Since a high percentage of people reported the work-at-home trend, it is also possible that the trend has developed long enough that these home office machines and supplies are already bought by people in need.

Even if I concede that more home office machines and supplies should be stocked, there is still insufficient evidence to conclude that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of the stores. The conclusion is drawn too hastily that many other factors, such as the transportation fee and the storage fee, are not taken into account. Moreover, the management of the office-supply departments is also a key factor linked to the profit. Without estimating and ruling out all these possibilities, the conclusion can not be drawn.

To sum over, merely based on unreliable evidences and unwarranted assumptions, the author conclude that the office-supply departments will be the most profitable component of the stores. To strength this argument, more information must be provided to show the validity of the survey and home-office machines and supplies are truly needed. Many other factors linked to profit should all be considered and eliminated.