argument45 同主题写作[越洋农场战队] monkeycola

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45The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."

In this argument, the arguer concludes that the decline in arctic deep populations is the result of deer being incapable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.To support the conclusion that the arguer points out that due to the report from the hunters that the deer population declined and these reports coincide with the recent global warming which cause the sea ice melting impede the habits of deer to look for food .The conclusion is unconvincing for several flaws.

First of all, the mere fact recent global warming could not prove that local weather also gets warm. Common sense informs us that different areas have different geographic characteristics ,so the weather in different regions all over the world are diversified. Although recently there is a global warming trend, perhaps a few of areas are not influenced by this trend. It is quite possible that the temperature doesn’t rise, or even fell down. Without sufficient evidence to prove this assumption that the weather in local areas get warm, so the assumption is not persuasive as it stands.

In addition, even assuming the local weather get warm, the arguer provide no evidence that the decline of deer population attributes to the warm weather.(这个顺序是不是写反了)。Perhaps the warm weather could influence the environment which the deer live in, but the change of environment would not cause the death of deer. During a period of time all creatures all have the capability to adopt new environment, arctic deer are not exceptional. It is quite possible that arctic deer quite easily get used to the warmer weather and change their traditional migration pattern. Another possibility is that despite the local temperature got increased, but only a little increase which has little influence to the melting of ice. In this way, the warm temperature could not influence the immigration pattern of arctic deer. Without ruling out these possibilities, the conclusion is not well supported.

Finally, the result of this report from local hunters is open to doubt. The arguer already mentions that the arctic keep the habit of migration pattern,it is possible that arctic deer migrated to a place where there are few people or no one lived there to avoid hunting by the hunters.Or perhaps the hunters just in a small areas search for deer,and arctic deer live outside the areas.So failing to taking into these possibilities,the result of this report is dubious.

In sum,the conclusion is not convincing as it stands.To strengthen it,the arguer needs to provides that local weather also get warm and the weather influence arctic deer’s migration pattern which cause them dead in large numbers.
To evaluate the conclusion,the arguer need sufficient information to support the result of that report.