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发表于 2005-8-15 08:50:48
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The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
'Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior. Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time. Moreover, Adams' revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000. Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month. Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams.'
------正文------
The argument above is insufficiently supported by the evidence given and thus not convincing. Though the idea that people who want to sell their homes quickly and at a good price should use Adams other than Fitch seems at first glance to be an obvious conclusion, there are a few facets that deserved attention. I will discuss each of them in turn.
To begin with, the evidence cited to support that Adams's efficiency and service quality is better than Fitch is incomplete and selective. We are informed that Adams has 40 real estate agents, but Fitch only has 25 and many of them work only part-time. But this does not necessarily mean that Adams is better than Fitch. It is possible that Fitch's agents work much more hardworking than Adams's, although there are less people. It is also possible that the Adams is a much bigger company but Fitch is a small one. Without ruling out this and other possibilities, the author cannot conclude that Adams is better than Fitch.
In addition, the author unfairly assumes that the home's sale price depends on its revenue and the average home sales. No evidence proves that this is the case. It is possible that Adams is much bigger than Fitch, so its revenue was higher than that of Fitch. Moreover, it is equally likely that the homes sold at Adams most are big houses, causing the average home sales higher than Fitch's. Without accounting for these scenarios, we cannot accept that Adams can sell homes at a high price.
Finally, the author relies on what might be a false comparison between the home sold ten years ago and the home sold last year. The quickness of the sale of homes depends on many factors. Factors such as the development of the economy, the situation of the homes, and the quality of the homes all are relevant causes. Without given such information, perhaps the development of economy ten years was much better than that of last year. Furthermore, perhaps that the situation and quality of home sold ten years ago appeal to other people much. Without ruling out this and other possibilities, the author cannot convincingly conclude that the Adams can sell homes more quickly than Fitch.
In conclusion, the argument, while it seems sound at first, is logically flawed and therefore unconvincing. To support his argument, the author should provide more information of the two companies. To better evaluate the argument, we would need more evidence of the situations of the two homes sold ten years ago and last year. |
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