Argument48 Ares第二次作业

gamblerboUID: 2212217

48.
The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.

"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."

Exercise:

In this argument, several important concerns, such as the detailed data about the computer ownership and the expenditures on fitness-related products and services, which the arguer fails to address in the analysis, may seriously make the assumption that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit and the conclusion that fitness levels will improve when the economy does problematic and unconvincing.

In the first place, the major problem with this argument is the unwarranted assumption that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. To begin with, the highest computer ownership does not mean the most time using computers. It is entirely possible that the citizens in regions where levels of computer ownership are highest have plenty money to buy computer but do not have enough time to use it because they spent their most time on earning money. It is also possible that other reasons result in the highest overall fitness levels in these regions although they are spending much time using computers, such as eating too many foods and never to do exercise. Furthermore, the arguer fails to provide the detailed statistics data. It is entirely likely that it is not a specific example but does not suit to the whole situation. Therefore, the arguer fails to convince us that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit.

In the second place, another problem that weakens the logic of this argument is that the arguer commits a fallacy of concurrence and fails to build a causal relationship between physically fit and the economy. First of all, there are not enough evidences to show a causal relationship except that the economy is decreasing and this year's expenditures on fitness-related products and services is unusually low when the number of fit citizens declines. Perhaps it is the decline of the number of fit citizens that leads to the unusually low this year's expenditures on fitness-related products but does not relate with the recent of decline in the economy. What's more, the decline of the population with physical fitness is a result of a long term effect while the decline of economy is usually short. So the arguer fails to provide enough evidences to conclude that fitness levels will improve when the economy does.  

Last but not least, the arguer fails to take into account several other factors that might undermine the reasoning in this argument. Firstly, whether the standard for adequate physical fitness defined by the national advisory board has changed or not is an important question. If the standard changed, it is entirely possible that we can come to the conclusion that the number of fit citizens declines. Secondly, there are a number of other possible reasons resulting in the decline in the number of fit citizens, such as a change in custom.

In conclusion, it would be necessary for the arguer to rule out all above-mentioned possibilities before we could better evaluate the argument.

time :55 minutes (2006-6-27 09:49-10:44)

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