argument147 [飞扬之夏]不好意思才写好,麻烦批改哦

ann01UID: 2196411

Argu147
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

1.        extensive advertising 可能针对错误群体。说10-25岁人群最有可能玩电脑游戏没有根据，即使最可能玩不一定就会去玩，更不一定会去买（可能父母不让或无足够money等）。作为广告，应针对最大消费群体
2.        survey可信度问题：问了多少人，这些人是否具有广泛代表性
3.        即使survey结果可信，只能说明玩家更喜欢具有lifelike graphics的游戏，但不一定更会买这种类型，更不一定就买whirlwind video games，因为市场上可能还有很多同类产品。鉴于Whirlwind近两年销售成绩不佳，很可能有其他原因使玩家选择其他同类产品
4.        另外，survey与广告针对人群不同
5.        结论：不可信
应调查sales下降原因，研究市场上其他同类产品。即使这样，是否会increase dramatically仍很难说


The editorial forecasts a dramatical increase of sales of Whirlwind video games on two-fold bases. One is a survey suggesting the reversed sales trend towards lifelike graphics, the other is that Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign at most likely players. However, the argument relies on several unconvincing assumptions and has a lot of logical flaws.

First of all, the extensive advertising campaign of Whirlwind video games might direct at false age-group. No evidences support the statement that people 10-25 years old are most likely to play video games. Furthermore, most likely to play does not mean mostly likely to buy. It is probable that people at this age period do not buy many video game products because of their parents’ advice or their limited money. So an effective advertising campaign that will promote sales must direct at the largest buying group.

Second, the recent survey needs to be questioned. Which agency did the survey is not mentioned in the editorial, which makes the data quite doubtable. Moreover, how many video-game players were investigated? Common sense tells us the more, the better. How many places did the survey cover? To get authentic information, it must try to cover the whole video-game market. Whether these investigatees could represent most video-game players counts too.

Even if the survry is well done, it can only prove that players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics. Increasing sales of Whirlwind video games still cannot be inferred, because most players may not buy such video games in spite of their preference. Maybe such games require high technology so the price is too high for most players to afford. And as the editorial says, such games require the most up-to-date computers players may not have now and in short-term.  Besides, other video-game companies may also produce video games with lifelike graphics. It is not necessary that customers will choose Whirlwind video games when there are so many competing products in the market. Since the sales of Whirlwind have declined these two years, we have every reason to guess Whirlwind video games have some serious problems which have been dong harm to the sales. Without improvement, its products will not sell well.

Finally, the survey and the advertising campaign directed at different people. Such difference makes the argument even more flawed.

All in all, the conclusion drawn by the editorial is rather unconvincing. The arguer has to find out the causes to the sale decline of Whirlwind these two years, and investigate other products in the video-game market. Even so, dramatically increasing sales of Whirlwind are still in the air, because too many factors play an important role in the sales of products.

ann01UID: 2196411

天!咋没人理我呢?
连我们组的都不见了!