[REBORN FROM THE ASHES][comment][01.10]

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

很奇怪~今天居然没有comment 那我就来发一篇吧~

文章在附件里，大家下载下就好~

tequilawineUID: 2702008

1 Long-term prediction, let alone control, is out of the question.
2 But this criticism attacks a caricature.什么意思？

3 In many simple choices, the possible states of nature are bimodal – the team will beat the spread or not, a hurricane will damage a house or not. At other times, they extend along a single dimension, such as the range of possible returns to an investment. 不懂？

4
Risk resides in simple choices, but uncertainty arises in messy situations, where the variety of possible actions is nearly infinite.

5 Or to take a sports analogy, the punter chooses whether to bet or not, but the coach must juggle myriad interactions of trades, training, strategy and tactics to win.

6 They should not fool themselves, however, into believing they can reduce all uncertainty to risk.

7 Business, to paraphrase the Danish philosopher Soren Kierkegaard, can only be understood backward, but it must be managed forward.

8 So, how can executives survive and thrive in an uncertain world? Adapt or die, is the short answer.

9 This is an easy concept to understand, but it is hard to translate into practice.说是容易，做时难。承上启下的句子。

10 In an uncertain world, managers must recognize that their mental models are provisional – useful for now but subject to revision as circumstances change.

11 Companies must, for example, balance defense and offence.

12 They also provide the foundation for rapidly scaling a business if circumstances warrant.

13 In contrast to specialized resources – such as dedicated manufacturing capacity or real estate – a war chest of cash or low leverage also allows a company to survive threats and seize opportunities that executives did not anticipate. 专有名词？

comment:

I have to admit this essay is pretty good. In order to give us a clear comprehensive perceiving of nuances between the uncertainty and risk, the author sets up a series of cogent ensamples to demonstrate up forward.

Confronting uncertainty, long time prediction, let alone control, is out of question. However, we can aspire to master uncertainty in a way a seasoned sailor masters the sea, that means, were we to be that, we need to abundant in insight and experiences to harness the wind and ride out the storm.

It follows that we can see the differences between risk and uncertainty distinctively, as one resides in simple choices, the other arises in messy situations, where the variety is infinite. That makes vivid to acknowledge that we can handle with risk better than uncertainty, which is unavoidable face of life.

So how can we especially as managers survive and thrive in an uncertain world? Adapt or die, is the short answer.

Easy saying than done. But we do have some hints to pursue, that comes from three aspects, strategic anticipation, organizational agility, uncertainty absorption.

qisaimanUID: 2703629

原来可以这样啊 下次我发 。

KiKi~淇水滺滺UID: 2679824

Summary
1. Concept of uncertainty
Uncertainty, arises out of the kaleidoscopic shifting of numerous volatile variables, is clarified as randomness where we cannot know the probabilities by economist Frank Knight. The volatile variables can be consumers’ preferences, regulation, technology, etc.

2. Concept of risk
Risk is defined as randomness with knowable probabilities by Frank Knight.

3. Differences between risk and uncertainty
From the concepts of these two words, the radical difference lies in whether the probabilities are known or not.
Uncertainty can’t tell the probabilities, while the probabilities of risk are known.
To be more specific, risk arises in simple yes/no choices, where ex ante probabilities to the occurrence; while it became uncertainty under messy situations, because the variety of possible actions is nearly infinite.
What’s more, the distinction also hinges on the range of possible actions they can employ to achieve a desired outcome.

4. Method, how to deal with the uncertainties.
In the world full of harsh Darwinian pressure, there is a simple rule, adapt or die.
The ability to deal with the uncertainties is a significant element in a company’s comprehensive strength.


The article provides two ways to handle.
One is adaption, which is composed of strategic anticipation and organizational agility.
The other is uncertainty absorption.

1)Adaption.
① strategic anticipation

What is strategic anticipation?
Strategic anticipation is a cognitive process of selecting the appropriate mental model for a situation and revising it when necessary.

The method is to gather real-time data from multiple sources, look for patterns from the present and past, and select mental models to represent the situation.

But models are not always right, they may vary according to each objective situation.
Even the best models may outlive its utility as circumstances change, so managers should always be open to the possibility of abandoning their model.

② organizational agility
What is organizational agility?
Organizational agility refers to an organization’s flexibility in undertaking new activities or abandoning old ones in the light of changed situation.


The challenges adaption poses
① balance the defense and offence.

Defense means to establish the core business as the most critical link, because the solid core business ensures that the company to stay in the game long enough to seize golden opportunities; while offence means to make other investments as some other ways to bring in money, for the company will be vulnerable if the core business suffers long-term depression.

② manage a portfolio of internal initiatives.
If a company always has back-up plans, it is likely that the company will act quickly when facing unexpected situation.

2)Uncertainty absorption
What is uncertainty absorption?
It is resilience toward unexpected events, good or bad, even if it is not predicted.

How to absorb uncertainty?
Blocking and tackling steps, such as lowering fixed costs or increasing operating efficiency.

Comment
1.uncertainty and risk

Uncertainty, is defined by economist Frank Knight as randomness where we cannot know probabilities, while risk is clarified as randomness where we can know probabilities.
From my perspective, uncertainty is the accumulation of risks.
Many simple yes/no choices forced the decision maker to balance in order to achieve the desired outcome. Managers face uncertainty while investors face risk, because to achieve a desired outcome, what the investors need to do is to make a simple choice, to invest or not, but what the managers need to decide is much more than that, such as how to improve the ability to absorb risk, how to make up if uncertainties happen, etc.


2.adaption versus absorption

Chinese companies always prefer mix both of them to do the risk management, but I reckon it even make more trouble than just choose one, because it involves much more elements to balance, and too some extent, these two methods may run into contradictions, the adaption calls for flexibility, while absorption requires people to use un-change to respond to the changes.
This definitely challenges the un-developed risk management of China.

dingyi0311UID: 2627919

好可怕，不过谢谢了

plukaUID: 2721764

NOTE
Risk resides in simple choices, but uncertainty arises in messy situations, where the variety of possible actions is nearly infinite.

The distinction hinges on(依...而转移） the range of possible actions they can employ to achieve a desired outcome.

peer deep into the future


seize golden opportunities

weather（经受，承受，耐住） unforeseen threats

reap the benefits of

COMMENT
This article introduced the conception of risk and uncertainty in financial field and explained simply methods that managers can adopt to deal with uncertainty.


Its explanation in distinguishing risk and uncertainty impresses me. Risk, it claimed, refered to the possible lose attached to certain relatively simple and known consequences. Uncertainty, on the other hand, lay in the complexity of the interaction of a myraid of components both subjective and objective, planed or accidental, crucial or irrelevant. The result of uncertainty defied detailed delineation, but was possible to make rough prediction and thus adopt certain measures. 

Next, the article presented three major way to handle uncertainty: strategic anticipation, organisational agility and uncertainty absorption. 
Strategic anticipation required managers to abstract patterns out of available data, statistics and experience, forming sketchy predictions for a short future. Managers were warned to stick to the steretype because old predictions often failed to provide accurate anticipation, and patterns and models needed to be renewed all the time.
Organisational agility standed for self-construction, the self-restoration that helped making the cooperation more durable and flexible in harsh time full of uncertainty. 
Uncertainty absorption focused mainly in the reduction of the potential lose caused by uncertainty. Diversification weighed much in this process. Companies could achieve the uncertainty absorption with the help of governmental fund and subsidy as well.

Since I have little financial background, I came up with little comment for this article (so I chosed to make kinda sum-up). Well, yet an increasing interest for economc hits me... perhaps management and finance are fun, humm, like to know more once have time.

windandrain2004UID: 2597690

占，太长

中原527UID: 2707367

最好发WORD吧...
我把它复制到WORD里面句子错乱...

qxn_1987UID: 2610437

2# tequilawine

我的理解：

3. 大多数情况下，
Uncertainty 和 risk 不是一回事，可是有时它们却合二为一，即某些事可能即不确定又有风险。

2.评论家对Knight’s distinction 很不屑，并且做了这样一个评论：“Decisionmakers who do not know the objective probabilities simply assign subjective probabilities to various outcomes and get on with it.”但实际上作者认为这种评论很讽刺。（原因：）仔细品味（这个评论），却更能显示Uncertainty 和 risk 的细微差别。

qxn_1987UID: 2610437

Comments:

There are numerous things out of our control, even unpredictable, or unforeseen in all our life as we live in an uncertain world. Even though we can learn to master, or deal with them just as a well-seasoned sailor.

The author first gives a definition of uncertainty, which is different from risk that most of us think of by instinct. As a matter of fact, we often face risk, as well as uncertainty. Risk is different from uncertainty, stock market is an concrete example, we face so many things uncertain. Allow me to coin a sentence in the article: “Risk resides in simple choices, but uncertainty arises in messy situations, where the variety of  possible actions is nearly infinite.”  

Though we cannot control the uncertainties, we can deal with them, from the author’s view, basically by three approachs---strategic anticipation, organistaional agility, and uncertainty absorption. Simply saying, that is, the managers should be flexible and agile in the light of changed circumstances so as to survial persistently instead of being eliminated according to Darwin's evolutionary theory .

=======
拼写：
basically
persistently

123runfordreamUID: 2697608

Discussions of uncertainty and risk tend to draw even the most hard-nosed (being tough, stubborn, or uncompromising) thinkers into a haze of metaphysical rumination – recall Donald Rumsfeld’s speculations on unknown unknowns, for example.



outsourcing(外部采办，外购)


The optimal (most desirable or satisfactory) combination, sequence and timing of future actions will depend critically on the interaction of many external variables, including shifting regulations, unstable commodity prices, the entry of new rivals, changing consumer preferences, volatile exchange and interest rates, fickle capital markets, geopolitical events, natural disasters and continuous technological change – not to mention the responses of competitors who will do their best to thwart managers’ best-laid plans.

People sometimes attempt to collapse complex uncertainty into simple risk, by framing a messy situation as a big bet.



The only way to avoid this harsh Darwinian pressure is to adapt to changing circumstances before market pressures select against your company.(真理可用之处不只一个。)


Whether we like it or not, uncertainty is an unavoidable fact of life.


Comment:
I thought this article was pretty same as the other one we had read before, which is talking about the function of manager, the need to change their ways of management. Differently, it discusses the situation of uncertainty between the companies and the managers.
Mastering uncertainties is an art actually, and full of challenges. Maybe for that reason, I believe it is an art that making money for companies, leading the direction out of mess. It is not only the investment but also in our daily life.
“Whether we like it or not, uncertainty is an unavoidable fact of life.” Things are that, when we face them, what are we going to do with the uncertain? Learning how to catch the opportunities by following the suggestions that including Strategic anticipation, organizational agility and uncertainty absorption will help us not only survive but succeed in the uncertain risks.

adammaksimUID: 2675466

comments:

Since this article is shown in PDF, it's a little inconvenient for me to mark the topic sentences and organize my comment. To begin with the oxymoron like phrase "mastering uncertainty", this essay indeed is a guide for managers and investors in decision making reminding me what I have learned in probability theory and Game theory. And as to me, the subtle difference between risk and uncertainty can be clarified in a mathematical sense as the risk is about a binary code with just 1 or 0, and the uncertainty is a much more complex permutation and combination question with numerous factors. If we can master the uncertainty, to some extant, we master the future. However, future can never be mastered. Our experience and wisdom may probability in making a right decision, yet no one can always make right decisions.

prettywraithUID: 197049

Comments (2010-01-10,11):

The essay is my favorite type, though several sentences in passage are confused for me. This essay also has many rhetorical descriptions and coherent reasoning worthy of learning. Certainly, contents are also very useful for our working in company.

Firstly, author shows us the difference between risk and uncertainty. If the author does mention these, people would never notice their distinction. Author, thus, asks them "nuanced distinction". Actually, the definition and distinction have been introduced clearly in the essay. Precisely speaking, risk is randomness with knowable probabilities, and uncertainty is randomness where we cannot know the probabilities (I paraphrase author's definitions of risk and uncertainty). To illustrate in a further step, author gives us a concrete example by comparing the Warren Buffett with the company managers. Then, author analyzes the uncertainty in company management and provides three steps to decrease the damage of uncertainty, including strategic anticipation, organizational agility and uncertainty absorption. In each step, author illustrates them with typical cases.

The author's assertion may not be absolute truth. But it is very useful for me. It introduces an uncertainty world to me, and teaches me how to survive in this world. Not only do his strategies adapt to business field, but also they can be applies in the daily life. Moreover, I believe that, with the increasing of practical business experience, these strategies and tactics will become vivid for me.

Wrong spelling:
probabilities
paraphrase
analyze
practical

番茄斗斗UID: 2720914

COMMENT:
After struggling through the topic relatedto philosophy and science, finally can I enjoy the topic relevant with management.
Minutes ago, risk and uncertainty remainedthe same to me. After the illustration given with cases, distinctions of thesetwo reveal themselves. According to the author, risk is concerned on proportionby investor, while CEO pays more attention to the uncertainty mainly due to theconcerns related to each other draw great difference.

After that, the author assumes 3 methods indealing with the uncertainty, strategy anticipation, organizational agility anduncertainty absorption.

Strategy anticipation, which is familiar tome, encourages managers to sense out the future possibility from the collected data;meanwhile, anomaly is expected to observed as well. This involves experienceand skills, and determines a qualified manager.
With boundless uncertainty, managers areprone to adapt and get rid of the outdated ways.

At last, author claims a long-misseduncertainty absorption strategy-diversification. To avoid its high cost,diversification, which ranges from the number of market to of geography, inbusiness is limited to “rule of two”, shifting the risk as well as unforeseenloss.

While doing my case study, I’m shocked bythe once-prosperous Techno-tycoon, Sony Inc. Armed with high-tech, Sony eclipsedcompetitors at ease. However, when technology market undergone a revolution,high-tech tends to be handy and this in turn, outshines Sony. Without probingthe future possibility and remaining the old frame of running strategy, Sony’slion share in techno market is dismissed by competitors, like Panasonic andetc. In addition, Sony is hammered by its over-diversification, which broke itsinvestment into pieces. Since then, Sony is laggard far behind.

Sony’s situation encounters every singlepoint mentioned in the article, and this is not mere coincidence. Businesstoday is more combined with uncertainty, which brings about risk as well asprofit. Thus, a qualified manager and investor are supposed to be keen on thechange and sense out the future possibility.

---
果然还是喜欢这种话题～～

splendidsunUID: 2723757

1-10
Comment:
In this article, the author explains the subtle difference between uncertainty and risk. Uncertainty is full of unknown that it is difficult for us to predict the trend of development. However, we are familiar with most of the factors which are comprised in the risk. It is possible to control these factors which might decrease the rate the risk happens.
Then the author illustrates three methods to deal with the uncertainty: strategy anticipation, organizational agility and uncertainty absorption.
The assertion of the author really brings some fresh knowledge for me. Also this article teaches me some Golden Rule to survive in this competitive society.