【Flyer杀G作文组】6月28日Argument15-BY candygege

candygegeUID: 2792059

ARGUMENT 15
15. The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol (胆固醇), and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
难度：★★★★


The argument contains several facets that are questionable. First, the reliability and validity of the survey are open to question. In addition, the author failed to examine alternative influencing factors and explanations, but draw a conclusion that selling the Old Dairy's stock and not purchasing imprudently. As follows, I will discuss each of these facets in turn.
   In evaluating the evidence of the survey, one must consider how the survey was conducted. Different direction or questions will lead distinguish response. One must also consider how broad the survey was. If the survey was limited to a certain responsors, who pay much more attention to their health or body image, such as fat person, hypertension patients, young girls and so on, the results might be attributable to those particular individuals. Hence, the generalization drawn might not apply to most people. In addition, the number of the whole respondents is still unknown, thus, the percentage author stated means nothing to us. For example, if only 1000 people were surveyed but only 10 responded, the 80%, namely 8 person, would not reflect the general attitude. This survey's target is people's attitude to food, so one point the attitude participants respond might be against to their behaviour, which means they choose low-fat food ideally, but buy high-fat food realistically, need to be think over. Considered all these factors, the conclusion would be highly suspect.
   Even if one accepts the survey results, the argument remains questionable. The argument assumes that the need for low-fat food, while most of products marketed in Old Diary Company are high-fat, will result in a decrease in profits. However, the author uses the statistical relationship between them to establish causality, ignoring other alternative factors. For instance, although the Old Dairy's food are high in fat and cholesterol, they possibily have a good or special taste, an unique figure, well post service, or low price, etc. which make them favored by some guys and hold a solid position in market. On the other hand, the high-fat and high-cholesterol food were mere a part of the whole products the Industry marketing, other products, like beverage, would be popular. Hence, the company's sales and their profits will not diminish greatly against the author's supposition.
   Overall, the whole argument, while it seems logical at first, has several flaws as discussed above. It could be more persuaded by providing more sufficient evidence, such as the reliable survey result, the actual situation of the company and so on. With these evidences, we will convince the conclusion.

xmxybgUID: 2843028

。。。有些翻译不过来。汗，

candygegeUID: 2792059

2# xmxybg

什么意思？