【Flyer杀G作文组】第十八次作业7月26日Argument45-By afufu1124

afufu1124UID: 2786856

TOPIC: ARGUMENT45 - The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.

"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
WORDS: 361
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2010-7-26 11:36:06

Citing reports from local hunters and warming trends which coincide with the reports, the speaker have concluded that the incline of deer populations is resulted from the warming whether that threaten the migration patterns of deer. Upon first impression the claim seems quite compelling. Close scrutiny of each of these facts, however,
reveals that the reasoning is unfounded and cannot lend credible support to the recommendations.

To begin with, little information was provided about the reports from local hunters--how they investigate the population of deer? how many local hunters respond to the interviewers?
If the local hunters reach the conclusion of deducing deer population according to less appearance of deer in one day, their report can not be credible. If only two local hunters hold the opinion about the deer population, the reports is worthless as basis for that claim.


Another problem with the argument is that the speaker confused causal effect with coincidence. Even though the population of deer has declined global warming trends take place, more evidence should be provided about the influence of warming trends in Canada's arctic region. Even if the warming trends affect the weather in local areas, the other factors that may adversely affect deer population should be ruled out by certain evidence such as overdue hunting activity in the region.

The last but not the least, the speaker fail to prove the relationship between warming trends and less frozen area for deer migration. Although the temperature is getting higher, whether the temperature is high enough to stop sea water from freezing is not mentioned in the reasoning. Therefore, deer can still travel over frozen sea if the influence of higher temperature is not obvious. The reduce deer population may result from accessing to less food in warming climate not less frozen sea.

All in all, the recommendation relies on doubtful assumptions that render it unconvincing as it stands. To strengthen the argument the author should demonstrate that local hunters reach the conclusion on the basis of long-term investigation. To bolster the warming trends reduce frozen sea, the speaker must provide clear evidence that the temperature is high enough for sea to stand as liquid.