Argument提纲 =So What=小组第1次作业 by xwlove

xwloveUID: 2481588

1The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents.Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full.We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
1.以往的经验并不一定继续适用（如Plainsville市场已存在强劲的对手、或者市场已经饱和等），只有通过市场调研才能科学预测。
2.Plainsville 的商业报告表明运动用品畅销、运动俱乐部生意红火，首先它们的盈利情况不得而知(或许是降价倾销但利润微薄)；其次，即使运动品畅销盈利，这也并不能代表保健食品和保健用品畅销盈利。
3.Plainsville学龄儿童是否被要求参与'fitness for life'项目也仅仅是论者臆测，并无确凿证据。
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2The following appeared in a letter sent by a committee of homeowners from the Deerhaven Acres to all homeowners in Deerhaven Acres. "Seven years ago, homeowners in nearby Brookville community adopted a set of restrictions on how the community's yards should be landscaped and what colors the exteriors of homes should be painted. Since then, average property values have tripled in Brookville. In order to raise property values in Deerhaven Acres, we should adopt our own set of restrictions on landscaping and housepainting."
1.average property values增长可能有其他原因：如市场供给减少、需求增加、土地价格上涨等等
2.average property values增长可能掩盖了某些个别下降的现象，landscape of community's yards和painted colors of exteriors对于价值的作用到底如何是不明晰的。
3.即使landscape和colors可以促进价值增长，landscape和colors的要求并非价值增长的唯一手段。如这些很简单的要求很容易被竞争对手模仿或超越，出现价格下降。
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3The following appeared in a newspaper article about law firms in the city of Megalopolis.
"In Megalopolis, the number of law school graduates who went to work for large, corporate firms declined by 15 percent over the last three years, whereas an increasing number of graduates took jobs at small, general practice firms. Even though large firms usually offer much higher salaries, law school graduates are choosing to work for the smaller firms most likely because they experience greater job satisfaction at smaller firms. In a survey of first-year students at a leading law school, most agreed with the statement that earning a high salary was less important to them than job satisfaction.This finding suggests that the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis will need to offer graduates more benefits and incentives and reduce the number of hours they must work."
1 就业变化可能另有他因，不能据此推断其原因在于the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis不能给毕业生带来job satisfaction。如小公司比例增加，从而增加了人才需求；小公司人员流动大，人才需求量增加等等
2 调查结论不可信。其一，first-year students的观点并不能代表毕业生观点；其二，调查过程是否科学（随机抽样，样本量足够大）不得而知。
3 即便the large, corporate firms of Megalopolis 为了改进job satisfaction，benefits and incentives and the number of hours不一定是影响job satisfaction的原因，如晋升机会、工作环境、公司文化等。
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4The following was posted on an Internet real estate discussion site.
"Of the two leading real estate firms in our town—Adams Realty and Fitch Realty—Adams is clearly superior.
Adams has 40 real estate agents. In contrast, Fitch has 25, many of whom work only part-time.
Moreover, Adams'revenue last year was twice as high as that of Fitch, and included home sales that averaged $168,000, compared to Fitch's $144,000.
Homes listed with Adams sell faster as well: ten years ago, I listed my home with Fitch and it took more than four months to sell; last year, when I sold another home, I listed it with Adams, and it took only one month.
Thus, if you want to sell your home quickly and at a good price, you should use Adams."

1.real estate agents的数量、员工是够兼职并不能代表公司实力；
2.营业收入总量和平均值并不代表盈利率
3.错误类比，10年前Fitch与1年前Adams没有可比性
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5The following appeared in the business section of a newspaper.
"Given that the number of people in our country with some form of arthritis is expected to rise from 40 million to 60 million over the next twenty years, pharmaceutical companies that produce drugs for the treatment of arthritis should be very profitable. Many analysts believe that in ten years Becton Pharmaceuticals, which makes Xenon, the best-selling drug treatment for arthritis, will be the most profitable pharmaceutical company. But the patent on Xenon expires in three years, and other companies will then be able to produce a cheaper version of the drug. Thus, it is more likely that in ten years the most profitable pharmaceutical company will be Perkins Pharmaceuticals, maker of a new drug called Xylan, which clinical studies show is preferred over Xenon by seven out of ten patients suffering from the most extreme cases of arthritis."
1.尽管Becton Pharmaceuticals的Xenon专利权expires in three years,并不能代表它利润会缩水；如其它公司是否能够生产出Xenon的药品，或者药效是否可以rival Xenon的水平，或者生产成本过高等
2.调查值得怀疑。样本不具有普遍的代表性。
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6 The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise.
Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself.
Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight.
Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
1.即使Monroe的jazz club市场大，the C Note盈利如何取决于很多因素。如发现市场、吸引顾客、运营成本。
2.Monroe 100,000 people以及Jazz Nightly是否表明爵士popular值得怀疑
3.nationwide study  about the typical jazz fan's expenses 不能够代表Monroe的消费情况。
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7The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."
其一：环境污染可能由于其他：可能受到邻近区域的影响、环境污染是一个累积过程（时间积累的效应而非当权者责任）、可能是以前旧有的工厂不注意保护环境；
其二：来自某一组织的人不一定就代表该组织；
其三：在不知道Ann Green的环境政策之前，我们不知道Ann Green是否能一定胜任，一定能解决environmental problems。
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8The following appeared in a memorandum issued by the strategic planning department at Omni Inc.
"Mesa Foods, a manufacturer of snack foods that currently markets its products within a relatively small region of the country, has strong growth potential. Mesa enjoyed a 20 percent increase in profits last year, and its best-selling product, Diabolique Salsa, has had increased sales over each of the past three years.
Since Omni Inc. is interested in reaching 14-to-25 year olds, the age group that consumes the most snack food, we should buy Mesa Foods, and concentrate in particular on marketing Diabolique Salsa throughout the country."
1 Mesa Foods在小范围内的销售情况并不适用于全国；
2.Mesa Foods在该地区销售业绩可能受到该地区特有因素影响
3.Diabolique Salsa不一定能作为concentration of marketing，Diabolique Salsa的购买群体是否是14-to-25 year olds？
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9The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors.Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."
1 Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated可能另有他因；
2 Omega 研究生就业不如 Alpha University也不一定因为分数；
3 分数提高不一定是质的提高，从长远来看也不一定能保证Omega University的研究生更好就业。
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10The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon.To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
1 真实价格不一定上涨了。真实价格上涨需要提出通货膨胀因子。
2 dairy farms不一定牟取了不合理的超额利润
3 价格管制能够降低价格，但不一定保证充足供给。
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11The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.
"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years.During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years.Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."
1 尽管charges for garbage pickup will double，下个月的回收量不一定会增长.
2 survey不一定合理可信
3 residents' commitment不一会真实发生
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12The following appeared in a memo from a vice president of Alta Manufacturing.
"During the past year, Alta Manufacturing had thirty percent more on-the-job accidents than nearby Panoply Industries, where the work shifts are one hour shorter than ours. Experts believe that a significant contributing factor in many on-the-job accidents is fatigue and sleep deprivation among workers. Therefore, to reduce the number of on-the-job accidents at Alta and thereby increase productivity, we should shorten each of our three work shifts by one hour so that our employees will get adequate amounts of sleep."
1.work shifts不一定是影响Alta Manufacturing发生on-the-job accidents的原因
2.fatigue and sleep deprivation只是其中一个contributing factor，并不一定吻合Alta Manufacturing情况。
3.减少work shifts不一定减少on-the-job accidents，增加productivity（写到这里的时候凌晨2：00，开始觉得右手很沉，思维已经癫狂，我是在挑战人类极限吗O(∩_∩)O~……）
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13The following appeared in a memo from the chief executive of a video game company.
"We have recently been offered the opportunity to buy the rights to produce a video game based on the soon-to-be-published children's book "Squirrel Power," by Peter Wood.
While the cost of the rights is substantial and will place economic constraints on our company in the short-term,
there are two reasons that the purchase of these rights will undoubtedly be a wise investment.
First, Wood's last three books have been best sellers and the movie based on his first book was highly profitable.
Second, the popular characters and story line in "Squirrel Power" will save us time in developing our video game, thereby reducing our costs."
1.Wood的书畅销以及改编电影获利丰厚，并不能保证soon-to-be-published children's book以及video game一定畅销。
2.the popular characters and story line 不一定节约视频游戏开发时间
3 即使能够节约视频游戏开发时间，降低成本，高额的版权费会给公司运营造成巨大压力。
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14The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring."
1 调查结果不足信。其一，调查针对全国，并不能说明当地情况
2 调查显示消费者对超市蔬菜质量不满意，并不能证明消费者对于自己种植蔬菜感兴趣
3 the gardening magazine Great Gardens销量好与消费者对于自己种植蔬菜感兴趣不存在必然联系
4 即使消费者对于自己种植蔬菜感兴趣，greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds不一定保证利润增加。
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15 The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease.We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
1 调查是否可信存在疑问
2 受访者只是表示愿意减少消费，但实际行动情况不一定
3 Old Dairy Industries销售不一定会下降
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16The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a local newspaper from a citizen of the state of Impecunia.
"Two years ago our neighboring state, Lucria, began a state lottery to supplement tax revenues for education and public health. Today, Lucria spends more per pupil than we do, and Lucria's public health program treats far more people than our state's program does.If we were to establish a state lottery like the one in Lucria, the profits could be used to improve our educational system and public health program. The new lottery would doubtless be successful, because a survey conducted in our capital city concludes that citizens of Impecunia already spend an average of $50 per person per year on gambling."
1 Lucria教育支出和公共卫生支出增长不一定源自于乐透彩的收入
2 调查不足信，调查的科学性上不可知；capital city的情况并不能代表Impecunia总体情况
3 即使调查科学，Impecunia每个居民每年花费$50参与gambling，但是$50相对于发行成本等或许很小，而且gambling的情况不代表乐透彩。

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17The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste,
because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken;
we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once.
Moreover, EZ—which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks—has ordered additional trucks.
Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."
1.尽管EZ collects trash twice a week，但不一定作为继续选择EZ的考虑因素；如果没有必要，只会增加成本。
2.EZ has ordered additional trucks，不一定能够作为继续选择EZ的考虑因素；
3.调查不足信 其一，调查科学性；其二，调查并不能说明EZ提高收费以后居民是否会满意
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18The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."
1 论者说安全措施失败不一定有根据，其一，措施可能没有实行太久；其二，人们尚未习惯新的措施
2 路面状况并不一定施交通事故的唯一影响因素
3 Prunty County与Butler County不一定具有可比性；如Butler County的驾驶者可能更遵守交通规则等等
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19The following appeared in a letter from the manager of a rock band named Double Rice.
"One year ago, tickets for Double Rice's concerts in stadiums around the country took, on average, at least 24 hours to sell out, if they sold out at all. But the band has been enjoying a surge in nationwide popularity among 14 to 25 year olds, and the 30,000 tickets for a recent concert in Megalopolis sold out in 12 minutes. Clearly the ticket sales in Megalopolis are a result both of the band's increased popularity and of the advertising campaign run in Megalopolis by the Ad Lib advertising agency. Thus, in order to ensure that the band's success in Megalopolis is repeated across the country, the band should hire Ad Lib to duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign on a nationwide scale."
1 Megalopolis的门票销售情况并不一定代表nationwide popularity ；
2 Megalopolis的门票销售情况不一定是Ad Lib advertising agenc宣传的结果；如Megalopolis可能有大量青少年有音乐爱好者
3 duplicate the Megalopolis ad campaign不一定保证成功，因地制宜才有可能取得好的效果。
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20The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months.
To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season.
By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
1 人口增加不一定代表租用mopeds和bicycle人数增加，也不一定会导致交通事故增加
2 限制出租数量一定能够减少50%交通事故施过于武断的说法
3 Balmer与Torseau不一定具有可比性

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写的太粗糙，太差了。整整4个小时啊。唉，究竟为何？怀疑自己的IQ了。继续看书学习，努力改造！