Arugument57=美丽G程小组=小组2月1日作业by 独行天下

逆风的船UID: 2724552

题目：ARGUMENT57 - The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.

"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
字数：323
用时：上午 12:30:00
日期：2010-1-8


Designed as a simple dietary supplement only as the Zorba is, the author asserts that it has the function of prevent the ulcers according to a survey result. In this survey, 25 percent of the ulcer patients used the Zorba developed new ulcers compared 75% of the patients with the ulcer did not use the Zorbra. Reasonable as the argument seems, I still can not be convinced for the follow reasons.

At first I think the result of this study can not support the conclusion made by the author. The mere fact that for the ulcer patients who used the Zorbra, 25% developed new ulcers and for the uncer patients who did not use the Zorbra 75% recurrence ulcer, can not illustrate it is the Zobra which contributed to the preventing of the recurrent ulcers. It is entirely possible that it is the interaction of the Zobra and the other drugs or even only the other drugs which undergoes this function, as the author did not mention weather the patients only used Zobra under thee instruction of the doctors.

Given the Zobra has the function of preventing the recurrent of the ulcers, the author hastily goes further to assert that many first-time ulcers also can be prevented by it. There are chances that the mechanism of the first-time ulcers is different from the recurrent ulcers, as a result the Zobra have nothing to do with the first-time ulcers or even contribute to the development of the first-time ulcers.

As discussed above, only the study result cannot support the conclusion made by the author. To better assess this argument I should be informed the study result of the patients only treated by the Zobra. As to weather it can prevent the first-time ulcer, I should consider the percentage of the people who toke Zobra regularly in the normal time got ulcer and the percentage of people who did not take Zobra got this illness.