【clover】argument117 习作by cyct

cyctUID：2728144

第三次作业，大家狂拍哈

TOPIC: ARGUMENT117 - The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders, and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."
WORDS: 496
TIME: 01:39:19
DATE: 2010-2-7 17:39:51

Based on a survey, which indicates that over 70 percent of the respondents are required to take more work home with them than they were in the past, the business manager of Valu-Mart stores (VM for short) decides to increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies in order to make the office-supply departments become the most profitable component of the stores. However, the business manager of VM overlooks the reliability of this survey and other possible explanations affecting the outcome and may, therefore, lead to invest in the wrong way and lost the actual opportunity to get profit.

Merely based on the survey, the business manager makes the relative strategy, while the survey itself contains several problems. First, the survey does not provide any information about where this survey was conducted, which means the result of this survey can not directly reflect the real condition of VM's target customers. It is possible that the market where VM located is significantly different from the market where the survey was conducted. In addition, no evidence is provided that whether the respondents are representative. What do they do? How many of them? It is possible that the individuals investigated are more likely to take work with them from the workplace. Even if that is the case, how many of them will actually need the home office machines at home, which is also not provided in this survey. Before the business manager draw a conclusion that a work-at-home trend is coming, a more detail and specific investigate of target customers is needed.

Even if the survey indicates the coming of work-at-home trend, merely depend on increasing the stock of home office machines, the business manager can not ensure its profit without considering other possible explanations. No evidence can be seen that the customers will choose VM's products, including the type or the quality. And are there any competitors? Perhaps several other competitors have already focused on this market and gotten a majority of market share, and therefore reduces the sales of VM. Furthermore, the habit of customers might change during these years, especially influenced by the trend of Green. The individuals in the office are prefer paperless office, and thus more computer or other electronic products are needed rather than office machines and supplies, which will dramatically decrease the market share of conventional office machines and so does the profit. Besides, the management of VM itself is also needed to take into account, such as the cost of product, employee and the like. Without considering all the above mentioned possible alternatives, the manager can not assert that the office-supply department will become the most profitable component of VM.

To sum up, before the business manager decide to take a new strategy on office-supply department, a more specific survey on the preference of customers and the overall market share are needed. Meanwhile, the manager should also take into account its management and the competitor in the market, all of which will help the manager lead to the success.

桔子susanUID：2754084

改完了，小声提示：标题应该是argument117吧

cyctUID：2728144

第二次修改
Based on a survey, which indicates that over 70 percent of the respondents are required to take more work home with them than they were in the past, the business manager of Valu-Mart stores (VM for short) decides to increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies in order to make the office-supply departments become the most profitable component of the stores. However, the business manager of VM overlooks the reliability of this survey and other possible explanations affecting the outcome and may, therefore, lead to invest in the wrong way and lost the actual opportunity to get profit.

Merely based on the survey, the business manager makes the relative strategy, while the survey itself contains several problems. First, the survey does not provide any information about where this survey was conducted, which means the result of this survey can not directly reflect the real condition of VM's target customers. It is possible that the market where VM located is significantly different from the market where the survey was conducted. In addition, no evidence is provided that whether the respondents are representative. What do they do? How many of them? It is possible that the individuals investigated are more likely to take work with them from the workplace. Even if that is the case, how many of them will actually need the home office machines at home, which is also not provided in this survey. Before the business manager draw a conclusion that a work-at-home trend is coming, a more detail and specific investigate of target customers is needed.

Even if the survey indicates the coming of work-at-home trend, merely depend on increasing the stock of home office machines, the business manager cannot ensure its profit without considering other possible explanations. No evidence can be seen that the customers will choose VM's products, including the type or the quality. And are there any competitors? Perhaps several other competitors have already focused on this market and gotten a majority of market share, and therefore reduces the sales of VM. Furthermore, the habit of customers might change during these years, especially influenced by the trend of going green. The individuals in the office are prefer going paperless, and thus more computer or other electronic products are needed rather than office machines and supplies, which will dramatically decrease the market share of conventional office machines and so does the profit. Besides, the management of VM itself is also needed to take into account, such as the cost of product, employee and the like. Without considering all the above mentioned possible alternatives, the manager can not assert that the office-supply department will become the most profitable component of VM.

To sum up, before the business manager decides to take a new strategy on office-supply department, a more specific survey on the preference of customers and the overall market share are needed. Meanwhile, the manager should also take into account its management and the competitor in the market, all of which will help the manager lead to the success.

wcnkUID：2546550

Based on a survey, which indicates that over 70 percent of the respondents are required to take more work home with them than they were in the past, the business manager of Valu-Mart stores (VM for short) decides to increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies in order to make the office-supply departments become the most profitable component of the stores. However, the business manager of VM overlooks the reliability of this survey and other possible explanations affecting the outcome and may, therefore, lead to invest in the wrong way and lost the actual opportunity to get profit.

Merely based on the survey, the business manager makes the relative strategy, while the survey itself contains several problems. First, the survey does not provide any information about where this survey was conducted, which means the result of this survey can not directly reflect the real condition of VM's target customers. It is possible that the market where VM located is significantly different from the market where the survey was conducted. In addition, no evidence is provided that whether the respondents are representative. What do they do? How many of them? It is possible that the individuals investigated are more likely to take work with them from the workplace. Even if that is the case, how many of them will actually need the home office machines at home, which is also not provided in this survey. Before the business manager draw a conclusion that a work-at-home trend is coming, a more detail and specific investigate of target customers is needed.

Even if the survey indicates the coming of work-at-home trend, merely depend on increasing the stock of home office machines, the business manager cannot ensure its profit without considering other possible explanations. No evidence can be seen that the customers will choose VM's products, including the type or the quality. And are there any competitors? Perhaps several other competitors have already focused on this market and gotten a majority of market share, and therefore reduces the sales of VM. Furthermore, the habit of customers might change during these years, especially influenced by the trend of going green. The individuals in the office are prefer going paperless, and thus more computer or other electronic products are needed rather than office machines and supplies, which will dramatically decrease the market share of conventional office machines and so does the profit. Besides, the management of VM itself is also needed to take into account, such as the cost of product, employee and the like. Without considering all the above mentioned possible alternatives, the manager can not assert that the office-supply department will become the most profitable component of VM.

To sum up, before the business manager decides to take a new strategy on office-supply department, a more specific survey on the preference of customers and the overall market share are needed. Meanwhile, the manager should also take into account its management and the competitor in the market, all of which will help the manager lead to the success.

看了一遍，非常标准，没什么可改的，总之就是很标准，思路清晰，第一段survey错误，第二段其他原因，个人感觉是：如果是限时写的，那得常好，规规矩矩，不过如果想在提高，我觉得第一：不应该攻击这两个点，因为所有Argument都能攻击，这两点是万能的；其次只写两个错误有点少，虽然每段分析得很充分，字数也够，我觉得应该再找些关键的点来攻击。   不过总体来说这篇Argu写的很清楚，值得我学习，这次的文章我题目都没看懂，写得很乱。~~

AdelineShenUID：2630498

不好意思，我网络太差了，前两天一直上不了网，现在网速慢的高级回复都打不开，只能从整体结构上给你一些建议。

作者的思路是：
Survey→越来越多的人把工作带回家→家里的办公用品需求量会上升→VM应该乘机增加办公用品的库存量→在办公用品上的盈利会成为VM盈利最多的部门
我们进行argument论证的时候，是要一步步把这条逻辑链的箭头一根根打断。所以反驳的逻辑顺序应该是：
1.        Survey的可靠性（反驳survey→越老越多人把工作带回家）（关于对survey的论证，建议你再去看看版上一些前辈的精华贴，我是不喜欢反驳survey的，因为survey是背景，不应该被反驳，argument的重点是抓逻辑错误，不是去反驳背景和调查的可靠性，这种千篇一律没有技术含量的东西能不用就不要用，除非你真的找不出三个逻辑错误来反驳）
2.        即使真的有越来越多的人把工作带回家，办公用品的需求量也不一定上升（反驳第二个→）
3.        即使家里的办公用品需求量会上升，VM也不一定要增加库存量，可能大多数消费者不会选择VM的产品，也可能他们的库存量本来就足够容纳市场，（反驳第三个→）
4.        即使家里的办公用品需求量会上升并且VM通过增加办公用品库量获得了利润，办公用品部门也不一定是盈利最多的部门（反驳最后一个→）

你这篇文章的整体结构中论证段只有两段，显得单薄了些，一般我们都要求至少三段反驳三个逻辑错误点。

另外，第一段前面都是在重复题目里面的话，除了告诉读者你要开始论证了，没有别的意义，而且题目里面的内容rater比你清楚，不需要这样去重复。开头的正确写法应该是直接指出文章的逻辑错误，而在说明文章逻辑错误的同时，暗示你自己这篇argument的论证顺序和结构，让rater看了一目了然。关于A的开头你可以去版上搜索666版主的argument开头那篇文章，里面介绍地很详细。

还有就是对survey的反驳不要当做一大段来写，如果你一定要反驳survey，稍微带过一下即可，毕竟survey不是反驳的重点，除非你真的找不到其他逻辑错误点了。