【Big Fish】03月19日argument207--By topran

topranUID: 2310216

First of all, the arguer assumes a direct cause and effect relationship between ultraviolet radiation and decline of salamander eggs. Based on the existing information, this causal relationship can not stand firmly. Even though, the arguer point out that salamander eggs have no protective shells, it dose not necessarily mean that the egg is too fragile to protect ultraviolet radiation. Without further details, it is quite hasty to say ultraviolet radiation could prevent egg from hatching. And the hatching procedure can be disturbed by the other factors too, like the lack has been polluted, so the quality of the water can not support hatch. If this kinds of possibility is existed, we can not accuse that ultraviolet radiation is the reason for egg damage .

Second, besides the declination of eggs , there also exists other factors can influence the population of salamander . Perhaps, this certain kind of salamander can not fit the environment any more , it just been weeped out naturally , by the Darwin's evolution theory , a lot of spices was been weeped out by natural selection. Perhaps , the population of predator which feed by this kind of salamander has increased, so more salamander has been consumed as food. The argument is critically weakened by failing to address these additional possible causes for the decline of salamander's population.

Thirdly, even if we assumes that ultra-violation radiation is the only killer for eggs and also is the major reason for the population decline of this certain kind of salamander, this argument is still questionable. The arguer makes a false analogy, the decline of certain salamander does not necessarily indicate that the population for the other species will also be affected. Without further science study, it is too hastily to predicted the case for each species is parallel. This certain kind of salamander which lay eggs in lake could be the only specie damaged by ultraviolet. Due to the article only proved one certain cite, we could not assert that the overall salamander population is declining .

In summary, this argument ignores several logic possibilities that severely undermine its premise and prediction. Without addressing the different possible reasons which can also terminate hatching procedure and can cause the decline of population, the cause and effect relation between ultra violation and population diminish. And more study should been done to prove the declination also happened in the other species.