Argument147,8,nofeelings,酒香

nofeelings811UID: 2388638

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.

作者其实心中有一个假设，销量下降是因为作品不行，于是他就去做了个调查，这个调查做的很烂，得出了个不靠谱的结论，根据这个结论，他还提出了一系列不靠谱的行为，最终他还很自信的断定：产品盈利短期肯定会上涨！:lol


In the article above, the author presume that the reason of the Whirlwind’s sales decline is the product itself and make a survey try to persuade us that graphic is the key, then naively draw the conclusion that the sales will increase in a short time.

Firstly, under the presumption that the decline was resulted by the low quality of the graphics, author suggests the company will render the product with life graphics. Unfortunately, the assumption can not be proved, according to the survey. Perhaps global economy in depression lets all products’ sales go down, or un-fashion leads it to the low sales, or strong rivals. Even if we can improve the quality of products to improve sales, the proving of improving the graphic is not strong. On one hand, there is uncertainty about institution’s authority and expertise. On the other hand, there is insurance about age of the people, neutrality of them and number of them. So, the effect of the survey is not sure to be good to lead to a conclusion that most people like graphic qualified video-games.

Secondly, most important feature does not mean most profitable one. Even if graphic improving is crucial, it ought not be the key point of the increasing the sales because there are other reasons here to let people not buy it even people like graphic improved video-games. People who like it may not have the ability to buy it. Some of them may be unemployed thus does not have the ability to buy or renew a high-end computer to play game, or some of them lazy to do this thing. Why the company then focus on the age group of 10~25? If it is attractive, it can hardly have the narrow age range, which makes the sales low. At the same time, we wonder whether the advertising campaign can reach the anticipation and not cost a lot.

Thirdly, even if improving the graphic makes people want and can buy the game, at the same time advertising campaign’s cost may be not too high, making more people want to buy them, the sales’ increasing is not only determined by the sales volume, but also counts on many other factors like global economy, fashion of the game, policy of the local government (high tax or low?).And in a short time and large range of space, it is especially impossible.

In sum, auger naively considers the reason of the decline, halfheartedly make a survey, change the product cursorily (about feature and object), make the unclear advertising campaign, finally expect too high.

harry1oo1oo1UID: 2683605

In the article above, the author presume that the reason of the Whirlwind’s sales decline is the product itself(这里比较主观，下降的原因也有前两年市场购买力不足，市场竞争激烈等等，凭借“this sales trend is about to be reversed”猜测原来销量不好是游戏不给力造成的，有些不全面) and make a survey try to persuade us that graphic is the key, then naively draw the conclusion that the sales will increase in a short time.（文章的开头不太好，建议没能概括完整作者的逻辑链，把那个广告宣传也提下，毕竟是一个论据）
Firstly, under the presumption that the decline was resulted by the low quality of the graphics（这里跟上面一样，low quality是推断出来的）, author suggests the company will render the product with life graphics. Unfortunately, the assumption cannot be proved, according to the survey. Perhaps global economy in depression lets all products’ sales go down, or un-fashion leads it to the low sales, or strong rivals. Even if we can improve the quality of products to improve sales, the proving of improving the graphic is not strong. On one hand, there is uncertainty about institution’s authority and expertise. On the other hand, there is insurance about age of the people, neutrality of them and number of them. So, the effect of the survey is not sure to be good to lead to a conclusion that most people like graphic qualified video-games.

Secondly, most important feature does not mean most profitable one. Even if graphic improving is crucial, it ought not be the key point of the increasing the sales because there are other reasons here to let people not buy it even people like graphic improved video-games. People who like it may not have the ability to buy it. Some of them may be unemployed thus does not have the ability to buy or renew a high-end computer to play game, or some of them lazy to do this thing. Why the company then focus on the age group of 10~25? If it is attractive, it can hardly have the narrow age range（这里的推测不太合理，这里应该分析下survey中的游戏玩家和这里的10~25岁的人是不是一群人）, which makes the sales low. At the same time, we wonder whether the advertising campaign can reach the anticipation and not cost a lot.
Thirdly, even if improving the graphic makes people want and can buy the game, at the same time advertising campaign’s cost may be not too high, making more people want to buy them, the sales’ increasing is not only determined by the sales volume, but also counts on many other factors like global economy（原因与第一段的黄色字体重复）, fashion of the game, policy of the local government (high tax or low?).And in a short time and large range of space, it is especially impossible.
In sum, auger naively considers the reason of the decline, halfheartedly make a survey, change the product cursorily (about feature and object), make the unclear advertising campaign, finally expect too high.（建议给出合理化建议）



你的逻辑链：1.graphics不一定带来销量；

2.有重要性这一特点不一定好卖

3.有其他因素影响销量
觉得1，2段可以换下位置，第3段与第1段一些”它因”有些重复



个人意见，仅供参考

加油！