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------摘要------
作者：林晓     共用时间：42分2秒     434 words
从2005年6月14日23时7分到2005年6月14日23时42分
------题目------
The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
'A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin.'
------正文------
The article claims that Luxess face cream is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin. To justify the conclusion the arguer cites a study which lasts a month. Based in this study, the argument also points out that the volunteers of the study reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. However, careful scrutiny reveals a series of logical problems, which renders the argument unconvincing.

First of all, the validity of the study is doubtful. There insufficient evidence to show the study is conducted in a random sampling way. Perhaps the volunteers are a group of people who have a similar skin condition which is different from the general population. For example, they are almost dry skin which will be effectively improved using Luxess for there is much oil in this face cream. Unless the author provide enough evidence to prove the volunteers studied is representative of the general population, the study is unpersuasive, which make the conclusion unconvincing. In addition, who conducted the study? Is the Luxess conducted the study as an advertisement? How they conducted the study? How they question the volunteers about the improvement? Is the questions leaded?

Second, whether the improvement is caused by Luxess is uncertain. The argument fails to provide enough evidence to rule out other factors maybe the real cause of the volunteers' facial skin improvement. For instance, it is highly possible that people there do not wash their face every morning, thus their skin improvement is caused by the everyday wash of face which they neglected before. It is also possible that they do not use mild soap before, and they might get the improvement only by using mild soap everyday morning without Luxess face cream. Unless there are a group of people who only use mild soap have little improvement of their face skin, the conclusion remains questionable.

Last but not least, the time of study is too short to reach the conclusion. Common sense tells us the improvement in only one month could not prove the cream is effective in a longer time. Perhaps this month is in spring, thereby the skin of people are turning better after a cold and windy winter. Or perhaps the volunteers will experience a decline of their skin condition for the effect of Luxess face cream could not last a long time or the cream will do harm to the skin after using it for a relative long time. All of these questions are lack of enough evidence to rule out in the argument.

In sum, the argument is unpersuasive as it stands,


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[ 本帖最后由 yogurt4 于 2006-2-4 02:10 编辑 ]

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