argument25 期待互拍

chengenhuiUID：200271

Argument25  
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The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
'Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View.'
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Merely based on unfounded assumption and dubious evidence, the author draws a conclusion that to build a golf course and resort hotel is the best way to improve Hopewell's economy. To support the conclusion, the author points out that after the construction of a new municipal golf course and resort hotel, tourism in Ocean View has increased. In addition, the author indicates that there are new businesses opened there, and the final result is that the tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. However, these alone neither constitute a logical argument in favor of the conclusion, nor provide the compelling support making the argument sound. The author ignores certain important concerns, which must be addressed to prove. In my point of view, this argument suffers from several flaws.

In the first place, the author assumes that the past conditions remain unchangeable. It is two yeas ago that after the construction of a new golf course and resort hotel, tourism has increased. However, it is entirely possible that nowadays the golf is not as fashionable as two years ago. And there must be many other places to build a golf course, since it can make a profit, therefore, the tourists who travel for playing golf will decrease.

In the second place, even we concede that the golf is still fashionable as it was two years ago; we also can not draw a conclusion that the economy of Hopewell will be improved after they build a golf course and resort hotel. The author assumes that the hotel and golf course construction is necessary to improve the economy and generate additional tax revenues. However, it is not necessarily the case. It is quite possible that the cost to maintain the golf course and resort hotel increased so much during two years, therefore the profits of them is not enough the generate the additional tax revenues.

Last but not least, although there are points of comparison, much dissimilarities are remained by the town Ocean View and the town Hopewell. The argument, thus relying on the assumption that the town Ocean View is analogous to the town Hopewell in all aspects, is so weak. It is ,for example ,possible that there are many famous resorts near the Ocean View, while around the Hopewell no famous resorts exist, which results that the resort hotel in Ocean View always full of travelers ,while the similar hotel in Hopewell is lack of customers. It is also possible that the transport of Ocean View is so convenient that new business can open and develop there, while the position of Hopewell is rather remote so that most investors think Hopewell is not the suitable position for the new business. In either event, only relying on such a simple mimicry, there would be little effective.

To sum up, the argument seems to be plausible; in fact, it is neither sound nor persuasive. Not only does it leave out such key issues, but also cites in analysis the evidence which does not lead strong support to what the author claims. To make the argument more convincing, the author would have to take the following conditions into consideration: the position of Hopewell, the difference between Ocean View and Hopewell, and so forth. If the argument includes the given factors guessed above, it would have been more thorough and adequate.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-7-20 at 23:41 ]

ardorousUID：2115432

优点，错误都在，结构较清晰
缺点：摸板太明显，刚看了一个一样的
建议：一二论证段可合并，用一个明显的逻辑递近，for example :
For instance......, beside......unless......at the same time ...., no guarantee that it will ....., Actually ....., would probably turn out to be ineffective and misleading 应该可套的，可试试
请也帮我改改https://bbs.gter.net/viewthread.php?tid=303427