argument76 同主题

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Argument76
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The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
'A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin.'
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The arguer advocates that Luxess face cream is truly effective in improving the condition o f the facial skin.  In order to support this conclusion, the speaker points out that a group of volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt after their use of the Luxess for a month.  The conclusion is not based on sound reasoning.

In the first place, the validity of the study is problematic. First of all, the number of volunteers and the number of them that reported a marked improvement is unknown. Perhaps only 3 people participated in the study and 2 claimed they were improved. If so, it is obviously that the number is too small to represent the whole population. Moreover, a month is so short that it is hasty to draw the conclusion. It is possible that at the beginning, the situation of the skin indeed improved, while a time later it becomes worse and worse.  

In the second place, no information tells us that the condition of volunteers’ skin really improved. The conclusion is only based on the report that volunteers' improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Without sufficient evidence, we cannot say the skin really got improved. Perhaps the skin looked better but in fact it was becoming worse.

In addition, whether the Luxess is the cause of the improvement of skin is unknown. The arguer assumes that the improvement of the skin is due to the use of the new Luxess cream other than other factors. But this need not be the case. Perhaps it is the soap they used that caused the change. Or perhaps the people who reported their skin were better used other face cream at the same time , and just these cream contribute to their skin. In short, without ruling out other possible explanations for the improvement of the skin, the author cannot reasonably conclude that Luxess is effective in improving of the facial skin.

In summary, the argument is unconvincing as it stands. Further survey is needed to strengthen it.

[ 本帖最后由 yogurt4 于 2006-2-4 02:16 编辑 ]