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Argument20  第44篇 让砖头来得更猛烈些吧！
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作者：fantasia     共用时间：30分1秒     449 words
从2005年7月25日15时6分到2005年7月25日15时30分
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The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
'The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals.'
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The author asserts in this letter that the town council should limit the number of some kind of mopeds in order to reduce the accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, which seems a tantalizingly plausible suggestion. The reasoning, nevertheless, suffers a series of serious logic fallacies.

First of all, it is based on the increase in population that the author articulates the necessity of corresponding decrease in number of mopeds, which may actually be a mere assumption that the increase in population is likely to cause more accidents. To what should be paid attention is the number actually increased, that is to say from which level is the population changing to 100,000. In the extreme case that the population just altered from 99,990 to 100,000, there is no need of worrying for the really “small” ascent.

Secondly, what leads to the limit is an analogy between Balmer Island (BI for short) and Torseau Island (TI for short), which is probably dubious concerning the dissimilarity between those two regions. Generally speaking, when relating two diverse things with each other, no matter whether they are neighbors or not, one has to explore the similarities and dissimilarities of them, lest it could lead to a false analogy. More precisely in this case, before more detailed information of BI and TI, such as geography, weather, population, number of mopeds and bicycles and so forth, were available, hardly could an analogy without doubt be achieved.

Thirdly, even if the conditions and situations of BI and TI are so similar that BI can learn from TI's experience for reference, it is too hasty or premature to declare a limit from 50 per day to 30 per day. How about 40 per day? Or 20 per day? In light of the benefits of both rental companies and tourists, a most suitable alternative number should be found out. Instead of copying the "30 per day" directly from TI, BI had better to take a closer examination for the best choice.

Last but not least, merely with the limit of the number, to predict a sure reduction by 50 percent is neither sensible nor reliable. No evidence other than the situation of TI last year is exhibited by the author, who fails in indicating that the reduction in BI will absolutely be the same as TI's. Are there any other factors influencing the sum of accidents? This question remains unanswered. Does the situation of BI or TI stay the same as last year's? This is again unsolved. Thus to tell the predicted number is nothing but fiction.

As a conclusion, the author provides a superficially decent yet dubious analysis. To support the essay again, more detailed information about both BI and TI this year and last year should be grasped. Only then, can the result be true.