argument147 同主题19期

carol009413UID: 2132317

Argument147 同主题19期

Argument 147
------题目------
The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

------正文------
In this argument, the arguer believes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months. In order to substantiate the assertion, the arguer takes the result of the survey as the evidence to support it, however it is unconvincing and without sound reason to show that this is the case. And further investigation will shows that there exist critical flaws in the analysis.
First of all, the arguer does not anlysize the reason of the decline over the past two years. The arguer do not show any evidence that the old video games’ features is not appealing and which results in that the decline of the sales of Whirlwind video games. The assumption is not reasonable. There is a good chance that the salesman did a very bad job in the marketing or the price was too expensive for the players, and which primarily influenced the sales of the video games. Without exploring the reason which gives rise to the decline, the arguer cannot conclude that the sales trench is about to reversed. The Whirlwind Company should do the job of investigation first.
Secondly, the narration of the survey is not complete enough to persuade us that the result is correct.  Who delivered the survey and how? Who response the survey, and how many people response it? Are the respondent representative? How about the date of the survey? There is a sequential of questions we should know, and the answers will help to us to decide whether the survey is valuable. Lacking any details concerning the survey, we can believe that the survey is invalid. The arguer should offer the cogent evidence.
Thirdly, supposed that the result of the survey is precise, the new features of the video games must necessarily stimulate the sales -- dramatical increase in sales in the next few months? There are other possible factors control the sales. On the one hand, the other factors, like sound effects, scene of the games, scenario of the stories, and the like, also impact game players on choosing which one to buy. On the other hand the arguer should take into account the ponderance of marketing. Without a well-connected marketing plan, the sales will not increase dramatically.
Lastly but not least important, the arguer take it for granted that the players 10 to 25 years old can afford the video games and the most up-to-date computer, and do not consider whether the competent company also introduce some similar video games with a lower price but without any additional requisition of the most updated implement. Considered these factors, we will find that the arguer is too optimistic.
In sum, the Whirlwind Company should take one thing with another. The reason of the decline over the past two years, the features of the video games, the plan of marketing and the situation of the competent company, these factors should all be taken into considerations.

carol009413UID: 2132317

不吝赐教！