argument117

芳气袭人UID：2127560

117.The following is a memo from the business manager of Valu-Mart stores.

"Over 70 percent of the respondents to a recent survey reported that they
are required to take more work home with them from the workplace than they
were in the past. Since Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its
office-supply departments in the past, we should take advantage of this
work-at-home trend by increasing at all Valu-Mart stores the stock of home
office machines such as printers, small copy machines, paper shredders,
and fax machines. We will also increase stock of office supplies such as
paper, pens, and staplers. With these changes, our office-supply
departments will become the most profitable component of our stores."

最近一次调查超过70％的回应者报告说他们被要求回家完成的工作量比以前多。由于Valu-Mart在过去并没有发现办公用品部销量的显著上升，我们应该利用这种在家办公的趋势，在所有Valu-Mart商店增加家庭办公机器比如打印机、小型复印机、碎纸机和传真机的存货。我们也将增加办公用品比如纸笔和钉书机的存货。通过这些变革，我们办公用品部将会成为我们商店中盈利最多的部门。


In this argument, the arguer claims that Valu-Mart stores' office-supply should make some changes, and with these changes, the stores will become the most profitable component of the stores. To support the proposal, the arguer points out that all Valu-Mart stores should increase the stock of home office machines and office supplies based on a recent survey. However, the recommendation is undermined by several flaws.

In the first place, the recent survey does not provide strong evidence to the assumption that there will necessarily be a dramatic increase in market demand for home office machines and office supplies. There is no information about the quantity of the respondents of the survey, and whether they can be representative of the overall customers. The fewer the respondents are, the less reliable the survey is. Granted that there is really a trend of work-at -home, it can not ensure that they will necessarily need to buy more home office machines. Moreover, perhaps Valu-Mart stores' stock of these machines is enough to suffice the demand, and there is no need to increase it.  

In the next place, the arguer fails to explain the reasons why Valu-Mart has not seen impressive sales in its office-supply departments in the past. It is entirely possible that the customers are not satisfied with the merchances or service of the stores, or perhaps there are some problems in the management or sale department. If so, it is possible that the stock has already been too much to sale out, and only increasing the stock will do little or even do harm to the sales of its office-supply department.

Last but not the least, the assumption that the office-supply departments will become the most profitable component of the stores with these changes is unwarranted. The arguer fails to take into account other factors that might affect the profits. No substantial evidence can indicate that there will be more sales and the revenue will necessarily increase. Further more, the arguer provides no information about the costs of the additional machines, perhaps the costs are too much and would offset the revenue. In addition, even if the profits of the office-supply department will increase, without making a comparison with those of other departments, we can not ensure that the office-supply department is the most profitable one.

In sum, the proposal is not persuasive as it stands. To better support the argument, more information about the survey should be provided to make it more reliable. Also the arguer should establish a causal relationship between the increase in the stock and the more profits with a comparison with other departments in Valu-Mart stores.

[ Last edited by staralways on 2005-9-3 at 11:43 ]