Argument170 附提纲，敬请大家随便拍，必回拍

Archer1123UID: 206148

ＡＲＧＵＭＥＮＴ总频率２８
170For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
1.        无证据表明消费者不愿选择GC 牡蛎的原因是因为细菌
2.        无证据表明消费者愿意用高价购买GC牡蛎
3.        无证据表明这会给经营者带来更大的利润

In the argument, the author consumes that consumers are willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast (GC) as for northeastern Atlantic Coast (AC) oysters as soon as they are aware that scientists have devised a process for killing bacteria in GC oysters and producers will benefit from the tendency greatly. Under the close scrutiny, we can find out there are three flaws in this argument at least.

First and foremost, the author fails to set up a false causal relationship between the bacteria discovery and consumer’s change in purchasing oysters. There is no solid evidence to prove the safety problem resulting from bacteria is the root cause of people’s preference for AC oysters. Perhaps AC oysters were fitter for California consumers in taste, texture or size than GC during the last five years. It is possible that scientists find the AC’s oysters are more nutritious than GC’s, which results in its popular in customers. If the author cannot make sure whether the bacterial is the root cause or not, the measures of killing bacterial might take same effect as intended.

In addition, there is no convincing information provided by the author to buttress that customers are willing to choose GC oysters at twice price. It is highly possible that California customers have adapted and satisfied with AC oysters during last five years and are likely to favor them continuously. Moreover, according to the consumption psychology, people often put a doubtful eye on food which had safety problem even if the problem has been solved completely, which might cause customers to choose GC oysters reluctantly. Moreover, conceding people will purchase GC oysters, we have not find any survey or report to demonstrate that people are willing to pay it at twice price. If the author cannot rule out these possibilities, the prediction about GC oysters sale and price is unwarranted.

Last but not least, even if customers will pay twice price for GC oysters, it does not guarantee the greatly increased profit of producers. Profits, as we know, are influenced by the combination of a host of aspects, such as the cost, sale and other unpredicted factors. If the additional cost of killing bacteria is very enormous, or the sale of GC oysters without bacteria is very small, or regional weather or economic condition change suddenly and sharply, any of likelihood will effect on the revenue of producers.

In sum, based on what has discussed above, it is obvious that the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. In order to strengthen it, the author should rule out all other alternative explanations for consumers’ favorite of AC oysters, and provide data to prove the popular of GC oysters without bacteria among customers, as well as excluding the disadvantage factors of increasing profits.

nknobackUID: 2175779

ＡＲＧＵＭＥＮＴ总频率２８
170For the past five years, consumers in California have been willing to pay twice as much for oysters from the northeastern Atlantic Coast as for Gulf Coast oysters. This trend began shortly after harmful bacteria were found in a few raw Gulf Coast oysters. But scientists have now devised a process for killing the bacteria. Once consumers are made aware of the increased safety of Gulf Coast oysters, they are likely to be willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast as for northeastern Atlantic Coast oysters, and greater profits for Gulf Coast oyster producers will follow.
1.        无证据表明消费者不愿选择GC 牡蛎的原因是因为细菌
2.        无证据表明消费者愿意用高价购买GC牡蛎
3.        无证据表明这会给经营者带来更大的利润

In the argument, the author consumes that consumers are willing to pay as much for Gulf Coast (GC) as for northeastern Atlantic Coast (AC) oysters as soon as they are aware that scientists have devised a process for killing bacteria in GC oysters and producers will benefit from the tendency greatly. Under the close scrutiny, we can find out there are three flaws in this argument at least.

First and foremost, the author fails to set up a false causal relationship between the bacteria discovery and consumer’s change in purchasing oysters.这句话意思反了吧。 There is no solid evidence to prove the safety problem resulting from bacteria is the root cause of people’s preference for AC oysters. Perhaps AC oysters were fitter for California consumers in taste, texture or size than GC during the last five years. It is possible that scientists find the AC’s oysters are more nutritious than GC’s, which results in its popular in customers. If the author cannot make sure whether the bacterial is the root cause or not, the measures of killing bacterial might take same effect as intended.

In addition, there is no convincing information provided by the author to buttress that customers are willing to choose GC oysters at twice price. It is highly possible that California customers have adapted and satisfied with AC oysters during last five years and are likely to favor them continuously. Moreover, according to the consumption psychology, people often put a doubtful eye on food which had safety problem even if the problem has been solved completely, which might cause customers to choose GC oysters reluctantly. Moreover, conceding people will purchase GC oysters, we have not find any survey or report to demonstrate that people are willing to pay it at twice price. If the author cannot rule out these possibilities, the prediction about GC oysters sale and price is unwarranted.

Last but not least, even if customers will pay twice price for GC oysters, it does not guarantee the greatly increased profit of producers. Profits, as we know, are influenced by the combination of a host of aspects, such as the cost, sale and other unpredicted factors. If the additional cost of killing bacteria is very enormous, or the sale of GC oysters without bacteria is very small, or regional weather or economic condition change suddenly and sharply, any of likelihood will effect on the revenue of producers. 这段写的不错！:)

In sum, based on what has discussed above, it is obvious that the argument is unpersuasive as it stands. In order to strengthen it, the author should rule out all other alternative explanations for consumers’ favorite of AC oysters, and provide data to prove the popular of GC oysters without bacteria among customers, as well as excluding the disadvantage factors of increasing profits.

Archer1123UID: 206148

谢谢
不过不明白，下面那句话的意思怎么反了？请指教，我比较笨，呜呜……
First and foremost, the author fails to set up a false causal relationship between the bacteria discovery and consumer’s change in purchasing oysters.这句话意思反了吧。