Argument147 Gter四月''无名''小组第25次作业-Expire7

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TOPIC：ARGUMENT 147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS：480          TIME：上午 12:25:13          DATE：2006-3-12

In this argument, the author advocates that the sales of Whirlwind video games will increase in the next few months. To support his claim, the author cites a survey showing that the sales trend will be reversed. Meanwhile, he says that Whirlwind has introduced many games which own the features preferred by players. Close scrutiny of this argument, however, reveals that it is unconvincing as it stands.

First and foremost, the author can not conclude that the sales trend will be changed on the basis of the survey. Since the author omits the details of survey, we can reasonable suspect the survey's conduct. If the survey were not conducted in sound methods, it might be unreliable and unrepresentative. It is possible that the respondents are not big enough to represent the whole population. The less the samplers, the more irreliable of the survey. Without eliminate those scenarios, the author can not effectively predict the trend of video game sales.

Secondly, even if we accepted that the survey is valid and sound, the sales of Whirlwind video games might not as good as the author's assumption. Although the respondents admitted that lifelike graphics is the most important thing to determine their choice in games, there is not any causal relation between the preference and the sales. On the other hand, perhaps those people can not afford the up-to-date computers so that they will not buy that kind of game. Or perhaps they have many games having the feature of lifelike graphics. Naturally, their purchasing power of new game is small even null. Any of those assumptions, if true, will undermine the author's assumptions that the sales will dramatically increase.

Last but not least, the author commits a fallacy of hasty generalization. Lacking the evidence that the people 10 to 25 will buy the game of Whirlwind, the sales definite increase in the next few months might be a dream. Common sense tells that the people 10 to 25 hardly afford much money to video game, and thus they can not consume many products of Whirlwind, even they indeed like Whirlwind video games. On the other hand, the author does not consider the other factors influencing the sales, such as the demand, supply and market condition. Certainly, all of those will greatly affect the sales in the next few months. Without accounting for those possibilities, the author can not recommend that the sales will increase in the next few months.

To sum up, the argument lacks credibility because of the cited survey and assumptions can not lend much support to what the author maintains. To make it logically accept, the author must demonstrate the evidence to prove the survey reliable and representative. Furthermore, the author should give more information to support the people will buy the product of Whirlwind. To better evaluate it, I also need information about demand, supply and market condition in the Whirlwind.