argument47 认真作文互改小组11th task taro's

taroUID: 2286098

ARGUMENT47 - Scientists studying historical weather patterns have discovered that in the mid-sixth century, Earth suddenly became significantly cooler. Although few historical records survive from that time, some accounts found both in Asia and Europe mention a dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures. Either a huge volcanic eruption or a large meteorite colliding with Earth could have created a large dust cloud throughout Earth's atmosphere that would have been capable of blocking enough sunlight to lower global temperatures significantly. A large meteorite collision, however, would probably create a sudden bright flash of light, and no extant historical records of the time mention such a flash. Some surviving Asian historical records of the time, however, mention a loud boom that would be consistent with a volcanic eruption. Therefore, the cooling was probably caused by a volcanic eruption.

Syllabus
1 太阳变暗和地球极度寒冷之间没有必然联系。
2 没有light flash的纪录不代表没有陨石撞击发生过。
3 即使有巨响记录，也不一定是火山爆发。不能排除其他原因。

Based on a few historical records, the arguer asserts that the cooling of Earth in the mid-sixth century resulted from a volcanic eruption.  However, both the deficiency of evidence and the logical flaws in the reasoning undermine the credibility of this assertion.

To begin with, the author fail to establish any causal relationship between the cooling of Earth and the
the dimming of the sun. Though records concerning the dimming of the sun and extremely cold temperatures in Asia and Europe are referred, it does not substantiate that the Earth would consequently experience a global cooling. As we know, both Europe and Asia have some parts lying in the Arctic Circle where polar night appears every winter, leading to a regional cold weather. Thus, it is highly possible that the phenomenon recorded in those accounts just happened in certain specific areas, which could scarcely have affected the global climate. In fact, other than the dimming of the sun, there are an abundance of factors that may result in abrupt chilling of Earth, such as a sudden decline of ocean temperature. Without taking into account those alternative explanations, the author cannot imply that a dimming of the sun is responsible for the extremely cold temperature of Earth.

Moreover, granted that the cooling is derived from the dimming of the sun, the arguer eliminates the probability that a tremendous meteorite collision leads to the global cooling. The single fact that no record of a light flash is left is insufficient to prove that no meteoritic collision has ever happened.Above all, the arguer fail to provide any evidence indicating that a bright flash of light is a concomitant phenomenon of a meteorite colliding on earth. Besides, even if such a light flash does occur whenever a meteoritic collision happens, it might take place somewhere untraversed, like over the South Pole; or it simply happened in the midnight, or in an extreme rapidity---any of those scenarios, if true, could explain why its occurrence was not seen. Again, perhaps people did witness the lightening, but they had no knowledge on how to keep written records at that time. As mentioned at the beginning of this argument that few historical records survived in the mid-sixth century, it is highly likely that records containing collision information were kept for a certain period of time, but was ruined and lost later. It is equally possible that such records still exist, yet have not been found by scientists.

Finally, the assumption that a volcanic eruption actually happened is dubious as well. Only relying on the record of a loud boom hardly can the author conclude that a volcano has ever broken out. It is entirely possible that the loud boom has nothing to do with a volcanic eruption but was caused by a sudden avalanche, or it is merely a long roll of thunder. Therefore, unless the author can supply compelling evidence to demonstrate that a volcanic eruption truly occurred, the conclusion is far from convincing.

In sum, the argument is not cogent because it suffers from several logical drawbacks and lack of evidence. To bolster the conclusion, the author needs to provide further information supporting a volcanic eruption did happen, and more importantly, it is the onlyexplanation for the global cooling in the mid-sixth century.

wangchangxiaoUID: 2123968

很感谢你对我文章的细心修改,我本想投桃报李,好好改改你的,但是!!!!!! 你叫我怎么能去改范文呢,不是开玩笑,这篇6分了!!!
不过还是有几个问题要问一下:
1. both Europe and Asia have some parts lying in the Arctic Circle where polar night appears every winter, leading to a regional cold weather 是指极夜现象吗,这有把握吗?
2. 可以多用点建议性的语气,不当是在结尾.
其他的我暂时想不到了
再次感谢你对我作业的细心点评

[ 本帖最后由 wangchangxiao 于 2007-2-9 18:47 编辑 ]