ARGUMENT53 米国有米寒假小组10日作业

cckantUID: 2247822

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 537          TIME: 0:46:41          DATE: 2007-2-10

In the argument, the arguer concludes that the increased levels of melatonin, a hormone known to affect some brain functions and which production in a mother's body naturally increases in responds to decreased daylight, before birth cause shyness during infant and this shyness continues into later life. The arguer cites a study of a group of 25 infants who shown signs of mild distress and a follow-up study thirteen years later. The argument seems to show some connection between melatonin and shyness. However, the logically defectives invalidate such deduced conclusion.

To begin with, the correlation between infant’s shyness and time of being conceived is not solid in the early research. The size of the studied sample is not large -- only 25 infants. This made the result highly sensitive with the sample selection. A valid comparison requires at less two groups of infants so that other factors are controlled so that the correlation between facts are isolated and identified. The research method that looking for difference among the infants within the group after they were selected as have shown signs of  mild distress associate with non-randomness. Hence, the discovery under this research method that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn is dubious. For example, there is no evidence suggests that the research was conducted over a long period. So it may be conducted within a short interval of time, which made that the ages of the selected infants were partially dependent on the time of research conduction. To illustrate, if the infants were drawn from who were from one to six months old and the research was conducted in late autumn, then there was a good chance that more infants have been conceived in early autumn from infants with and without shyness signs.

Moreover, there is no evidence suggest that the shyness contributes exclusively to melatonin. The argument mistakenly substitutes the causal relation from melatonin to shyness by the correlation between them. Even though we concede that there is a correlation between having being conceived in early autumn and shyness, no valid evidence suggests that it is due to the increased level of melatonin. It is likely that both of them are determined by the third material or fact, or they occasionally coincide and have no any causal relation with each other. Hence, such logical mistake prevents a valid argument processes.

In addition, the follow-up research provided no addition information about relation between shyness in later life and melatonin and dubious evidence about shyness continues into later life. On one hand, since the half of teenagers who identified themselves as shyness belonged to the group of infants who showed signs of mild distress, perhaps their admission of shyness may contribute the genetic factors but nothing about melatonin. On the other hand, since teenagers experience rapid physical and psychological changes, it is likely that people at this stage tend to recognized themselves as shy. The subjective identification of shyness is problematic for scientific research.

In sum, more convincing argument requires solid evidence to substantiate relationship between melatonin and shyness, better interpretation of the two researches and logically prudent deduction. Lacking these elements, the conclusion in this argument is invalid.

blackswitchUID: 2110679

TOPIC: ARGUMENT53 - Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
WORDS: 537          TIME: 0:46:41          DATE: 2007-2-10
In the argument, the arguer concludes that the increased levels of melatonin, a hormone known to affect some brain functions and which production in a mother's body naturally increases in responds to decreased daylight, before birth cause shyness during infant and this shyness continues into later life. [对原文的引述可以考虑再简洁一点]The arguer cites a study of a group of 25 infants who shown signs of mild distress and a follow-up study thirteen years later. The argument seems to show some connection between melatonin and shyness. However, the logically defectives invalidate such deduced conclusion.
To begin with, the correlation between infant’s shyness and time of being conceived is not solid in the early research. The size of the studied sample is not large -- only 25 infants. This made the result highly sensitive with the sample selection. A valid comparison requires at less two groups of infants so that other factors are controlled so that the correlation between facts are isolated and identified. The research method that looking for difference among the infants within the group after they were selected as have shown signs of  mild distress associate with non-randomness. Hence, the discovery under this research method that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn is dubious. For example, there is no evidence suggests that the research was conducted over a long period. So it may be conducted within a short interval of time, which made that the ages of the selected infants were partially dependent on the time of research conduction. To illustrate, if the infants were drawn from who were from one to six months old and the research was conducted in late autumn, then there was a good chance that more infants have been conceived in early autumn from infants with and without shyness signs.
Moreover, there is no evidence suggest that the shyness contributes exclusively to melatonin. The argument mistakenly substitutes the causal relation from melatonin to shyness by the correlation between them. Even though we concede that there is a correlation between having being conceived in early autumn and shyness, no valid evidence suggests that it is due to the increased level of melatonin. It is likely that both of them are determined by the third material or fact,[这里可以具体提一下其它原因] or they occasionally coincide and have no any causal relation with each other. Hence, such logical mistake prevents a valid argument processes.
In addition, the follow-up research provided no addition information about relation between shyness in later life and melatonin and dubious evidence about shyness continues into later life. On one hand, since the half of teenagers who identified themselves as shyness belonged to the group of infants who showed signs of mild distress, perhaps their admission of shyness may contribute the genetic factors but nothing about melatonin. On the other hand, since teenagers experience rapid physical and psychological changes, it is likely that people at this stage tend to recognized themselves as shy. The subjective identification of shyness is problematic for scientific research.[这段的论述可以在具体点]
In sum, more convincing argument requires solid evidence to substantiate relationship between melatonin and shyness, better interpretation of the two researches and logically prudent deduction. Lacking these elements, the conclusion in this argument is invalid.
[总的来说，文章对题名的分析比较全面，论证语言也不错，如果在论证的时候可以在具体点，就是把可能的其他原因和因素具体化，文章的说服力会更强些]

[ 本帖最后由 blackswitch 于 2007-2-11 17:07 编辑 ]